Giardini, Domenico

Will the advent of “petascale” computers be relevant to research in global seismic tomography? We illustrate here in detail two possible consequences of the expected leap in computing capability. First, being able to identify larger sets of differently regularized/parameterized solutions in shorter times will allow to evaluate their relative quality by more accurate statistical criteria than in the past. Second, it will become possible to compile large databases of sensitivity kernels, and update them efficiently in a non-linear inversion while iterating towards an optimal solution. We quantify the expected computational cost of the above endeavors, as a function of model resolution, and of the highest considered seismic-wave frequency.

Convective flow in the mantle can be thought of (and modeled) as exclusively driven by density hetero- geneities in the mantle itself, and the resulting lateral variations in the Earth’s gravity field. With this assumption, and a model of mantle rheology, a theoretical relationship can be found between 3D mantle structure and flow-related quantities that can be measured on the Earth’s surface, like free-air gravity anomalies. This relationship can be used to set up an inverse problem, with 1D mantle viscosity as a solu- tion. In the assumption that seismic velocity anomalies be of purely thermal origin, and related to density anomalies by a simple scaling factor, we invert the large-scale length component of the above-mentioned measurements jointly with seismic observations (waveforms and/or travel times) to derive an accurate 5-layer spherically symmetric model of upper- and lower-mantle viscosity. We attempt to account for non-uniqueness in the inverse problem by exploring the solution space, formed of all possible radial pro- files of Earth viscosity, by means of a non-deterministic global optimization method: the evolutionary algorithm (EA). For each sampled point of the solution space, a forward calculation is conducted to deter- mine a map of gravity anomalies, whose similarity to GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) is then measured; the procedure is iterated to convergence, according to EA criteria. The robustness of the inversion is tested by means of synthetic tests, indicating that our gravity data set is able to constrain less than 6 radial layers, each with uniform viscosity. Independently of the tomographic model or the scaling factor adopted to convert seismic velocity into density structure, the EA optimization method finds viscosity profiles characterized by low-viscosity in a depth range corresponding to the transition zone, and relatively uniform elsewhere.

The availability of broad-band digital data allow "the analysis" of the seismic signal in the low-noise frequency band for structural and seismic source studies, We model complete seismograms -surface and body waves - for the December 13, 1 990, Eastern Sicily earthquake, recorded at regional distances on the MEDNET stations AQU, BNI and KEG, The inversion for the moment tensor is carried out following two approaches: a) a model-independent stralegy to fit complete seismograms in the 100-130 s period range; b) the calibration of phase velocity curves along each path to fit surface waves in the 40-100 s range, Both methodologies yield stable and consistent results: the 1990 Eastern Sicily earthquake had a seismic moment of M/o = 37 x 1024 dyne.cm, corresponding lo magnitude values of mb = 5,5, Ms = 5,7, Mw = ML = 5.8. In a second stage, synthetic seismograms arc generated by full reflectivity in the 5-50 s period range, with a new code based on the "minors" integration. By modelling surface waves in the 30-50 s range and body waves to 5 s periods, we derive average velocity models for the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, and constrain the hypocenter of the 1990 Eastern Sicily earthquake to be in the 13-17 km depth range.

We take advantage of the new large AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN) as part of the AlpArray research initiative (www.alparray.ethz.ch), to establish a consistent seismicity-catalogue for the greater Alpine region (GAR) for the time period 2016 January 1–2019 December 31. We use data from 1103 stations including the AASN backbone composed of 352 permanent and 276 (including 30 OBS) temporary broad-band stations (network code Z3). Although characterized by a moderate seismic hazard, the European Alps and surrounding regions have a higher seismic risk due to the higher concentration of values and people. For these reasons, the GAR seismicity is monitored and routinely reported in catalogues by a 11 national and 2 regional seismic observatories. The heterogeneity of these data set limits the possibility of extracting consistent information by simply merging to investigate the GAR's seismicity as a whole. The uniformly spaced and dense AASN provides, for the first time, a unique opportunity to calculate high-precision hypocentre locations and consistent magnitude estimation with uniformity and equal uncertainty across the GAR. We present a new, multistep, semi-automatic method to process ∼50 TB of seismic signals, combining three different software. We used the SeisComP3 for the initial earthquake detection, a newly developed Python library ADAPT for high-quality re-picking, and the well-established VELEST algorithm both for filtering and final location purposes. Moreover, we computed new local magnitudes based on the final high-precision hypocentre locations and re-evaluation of the amplitude observations. The final catalogue contains 3293 seismic events and is complete down to local magnitude 2.4 and regionally consistent with the magnitude 3+ of national catalogues for the same time period. Despite covering only 4 yr of seismicity, our catalogue evidences the main fault systems and orogens’ front in the region, that are documented as seismically active by the EPOS-EMSC manually revised regional bulletin for the same time period. Additionally, we jointly inverted for a new regional minimum 1-D P-wave velocity model for the GAR and station delays for both permanent station networks and temporary arrays. These results provide the base for a future re-evaluation of the past decades of seismicity, and for the future seismicity, eventually improving seismic-hazard studies in the region. Moreover, we provide a unique, consistent seismic data set fundamental to further investigate this complex and seismically active area. The catalogue, the minimum 1-D P-wave velocity model, and station delays associated are openly shared and distributed with a permanent DOI listed in the data availability section.

Five Andean countries (Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela) and four European countries (Italy, Spain, Holland, Germany) cooperated in the PILOTO program ("Test area for earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment"), launched under GSHAP and sponsored by the European Union (Ct.94-0103) to produce a unified SHA for the Andean region. Activities included the integration of national earthquake catalogues and source zonings in common regional databases and joint technical workshops for the assessment of the regional hazard, expressed in terms of expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), a demonstration project of the UN/International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction, was conducted in the 1992-1998 period with the goal of improving global standards in seismic hazard assessment. The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map has been compiled by joining the regional maps produced for different GSHAP regions and test areas; it depicts the global seismic hazard as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years.

The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987). Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA) with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

This paper presents a velocity model of the Italian (central Mediterranean) lithosphere in unprecedented detail. The model is derived by inverting a set of 166,000 Pg and Pn seismic wave arrival times, restricted to the highest-quality data available. The tomographic images reveal the geometry of the subduction-collision system between the European, Adriatic, and Tyrrhenian plates, over a larger volume and with finer resolution than previous studies. We find two arcs of low-Vp anomalies running along the Alps and the Apennines, describing the collision zones of underthrusting continental lithospheres. Our results suggest that in the Apennines, a significant portion of the crust has been subducted below the mountain belt. From the velocity model we can also infer thermal softening of the crustal wedge above the subducting Adriatic plate. In the Tyrrhenian back-arc region, strong and extensive low-Vp anomalies depict upwelling asthenospheric material. The tomographic images also allow us to trace the boundary between the Adriatic and the Tyrrhenian plates at Moho depth, revealing some tears in the Adriatic-Ionian subducting lithosphere. The complex lithospheric structure described by this study is the result of a long evolution; the heterogeneities of continental margins, lithospheric underthrusting, and plate indentation have led to subduction variations, slab tears, and asthenospheric upwelling at the present day. The high-resolution model provided here greatly improves our understanding of the central Mediterranean’s structural puzzle. The results of this study can also shed light on the evolution of other regions experiencing both oceanic and continental subduction.

Making communities safer requires better tools to identify, quantify, and manage risks. Among the most important tools are stress tests, originally designed to test the risk posed by nuclear power plants. A complementary harmonized multilevel stress test for nonnuclear civil infrastructure systems against natural hazards is proposed. Each stress test level is characterized by a different scope and a different level of risk analysis complexity to suit different civil infrastructure systems, different hazards, and different risks. The stress test consists of the following phases. First, the goals and the methods for the risk analysis are defined. The test is then performed at the component and system levels, followed by a verification of the findings. A penalty system is defined to adjust the output of the risk assessment according to the limitations of the risk analysis methods used. The adjusted risk assessment results are then passed to a grading system to determine the outcome of the stress test. Finally, the risk assessment results are reported, and the stress test outcomes are communicated to stakeholders and authorities.