Cagnazzo, Chiara

We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2006-2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2-5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions.

The effect of the stratospheric ozone depletion on the thermal and dynamical structure of the middle atmosphere is assessed using two 5-member ensembles of transient GCM simulations; one including linear trends in ozone, the other not, for the 1980–1999 period. Simulated temperatures and observations are in good agreement in terms of mean values, autocorrelations and cross correlations. Annual-mean and seasonal temperature trends have been calculated using the same statistical analysis. Simulations show that ozone trends are responsible for reduced wave activity in the Arctic lower stratosphere in February and March, confirming both the role of dynamics in controlling March temperatures and a recently proposed mechanism whereby Arctic ozone depletion causes the reduction in wave activity entering the lower stratosphere. Changes in wave activity are consistent with an intensification of the polar vortex at the time of ozone depletion and with a weakened Brewer–Dobson circulation: A decrease of the dynamical warming/cooling associated with the descending/ascending branch of the wintertime mean residual circulation at high/low latitudes has been obtained through the analysis of temperature observations (1980–1999). Ozone is responsible of about one third of the decrease of this dynamical cooling at high latitudes. An increase in the residual mean circulation is seen in the observations for the 1965–1980 period.

A coupled aerosol‐atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice climate model is used to explore the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal‐to‐interannual time scales. Results show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April–May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low‐level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated‐heat‐pump mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface. In the same period, enhanced surface cooling may also be amplified through solar dimming by more cloudiness and aerosol loading, via increased dust transported by low‐level westerly flow. The surface cooling causes subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall in July–August over India. The time‐lagged nature of the reasonably realistic response of the model to aerosol forcing suggests that absorbing aerosols, besides their potential key roles in impacting monsoon water cycle and climate, may influence the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon.

In order to improve the representation of the shortwave radiative transfer in the MAECHAM5 general circulation model, the spectral resolution of the shortwave radiation parameterization used in the model has been increased and extended in the UV-B and UV-C bands. The upgraded shortwave parameterization is first validated offline with a 4 stream discrete-ordinate line-by-line model. Thereafter, two 20-years simulations with the MAECHAM5 middle atmosphere general circulation model are performed to evaluate the temperature changes and the dynamical feedbacks arising from the newly introduced parameterization. The offline clear-sky comparison of the standard and upgraded parameterizations with the discrete ordinate model shows considerable improvement for the upgraded parameterization in terms of shortwave fluxes and heating rates. In the simulation with the upgraded ratiation parameterization, we report a significant warming of almost the entire atmosphere, largest at 1 hPa at the stratopause, and stronger zonal mean zonal winds in the middle atmosphere. The warming at the summer stratopause alleviates the cold bias present in the model when the standard radiation scheme is used. The stronger zonal mean zonal winds induce a dynamical feedback that results in a dynamical warming (cooling) of the polar winter (summer) mesosphere, caused by an increased downward (upward)circulation in the winter (summer) hemisphere. In the troposphere, the changes in the spectral resolution and the associated changes in the cloud optical parameters introduce a relatively small warming and, consistenly, a moisteneing. The warming occurs mostly in the upper troposphere and can contribute to a possible improvement of the model temperature climatology.