Barba, Salvatore

In this study, we modify and extend a data analysis technique to determine the stress orientations between data clusters by adding an additional constraint governing the probability algorithm. We apply this technique to produce a map of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (S_Hmax) orientations in the greater European region (including Europe, Turkey and Mediterranean Africa). Using the World Stress Map dataset release 2008, we obtain analytical probability distributions of the directional differences as a function of the angular distance, θ. We then multiply the probability distributions that are based on pre-averaged data within θ<3° of the interpolation point and determine the maximum likelihood estimate of the S_Hmax orientation. At a given distance, the probability of obtaining a particular discrepancy decreases exponentially with discrepancy. By exploiting this feature observed in the World Stress Map release 2008 dataset, we increase the robustness of our S_Hmax determinations. For a reliable determination of the most likely S_Hmax orientation, we require that 90% confidence limits be less than ±60° and a minimum of three clusters, which is achieved for 57% of the study area, with small uncertainties of less than ±10° for 7% of the area. When the data density exceeds 0.8×10^-3 data/km2, our method provides a means of reproducing significant local patterns in the stress field. Several mountain ranges in the Mediterranean display 90° changes in the S_Hmax orientation from their crests (which often experience normal faulting) and their foothills (which often experience thrust faulting). This pattern constrains the tectonic stresses to a magnitude similar to that of the topographic stresses.

Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered. In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates. The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake. The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally. We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions based on long-term fault slip rates.

The project S1 was aimed at (a) collecting new data and to update the existing databases needed to quantify seismic hazard; (b) promoting new studies on specific fields of knowledge and less-explored areas of Italy; (c) testing new approaches to evaluate seismic potential; (d) bounding slip rate values to use within probabilistic hazard estimates; and (e) preparing the way towards a future seismic hazard map of Italy. It was designed with three scientific parts – nationwide basic data, rheology, and field studies – and implemented into four tasks: 1) earthquake geodesy and modeling, 2) seismological data and earthquake statistics, 3) earthquake geology, and 4) tsunamis. Although with many difficulties and some delay, described in the appropriate section, all the above objectives have generally been accomplished. New observations were collected through original fieldwork and more sophisticated analyses were performed on existing data. Datasets needed for the seismic hazard estimates were updated at various levels by reducing both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. New studies were carried out on specific fields of knowledge, e.g. addressing the repeatability of geodetic and stress data measurements or the seismogenic behavior of misoriented faults. Studies on less-explored areas were stimulated, and faults, whose seismic potential was not previously accounted for, were mapped and/or parameterized in the Ionian and Adriatic Seas, in Calabria, Sicily and the Southwestern Alps. Independent approaches to evaluate the seismic potential were tested, and a large effort toward homogenization and verifiability was made. The substantial improvements of nationwide datasets and understanding of the tectonic processes in large areas of the country set the basis for a significantly better assessment of seismic hazard.

Automated amplitude response of the complete seismometer, telemetry and recording system js obtaiued trom sinusoidal inputs to the calibration coil. Custom-built software was designed to perform fully automatic cali- bration analyses of the digital signals. In this paper we describe the signals used for calibration and interactive and batch procedures designed to obtain calibration functions in automatic mode. By using a steady-state method we reach a high degree of accuracy in the determination of both the frequency and amplitude of the \ignal. The only parameters required by this procedure are the seismometer mass, the calibration-coil constant and the intensity of the current injected into the calibration coil. This procedure is applicable to telemetered seismic systems and represents an optimization of the processing time. The software was designed to requjre no modification" jf the device used to generate the sinusoidal current should change. In particular, it is possi- ble to changc the number of monotrequcncy packages transmitted to the calibration coil with the on]y restric- tion that the difference between the frequency of two consecutjve packages be greater than 5%; for these rea- sons the procedure is expected to be usefu] for the seismological community. The paper inc]udes a generaI de- scription of thc designing criteria, and of the hardware and software architecture, as well as an account of thc system's performancc during a two year period of operation.

We introduce a new detection algorithm with improved local and regional seismic signal recognition. The method is based on the difference between seismic signals and background random noise in terms of fractal dimension D. We compare the new method extensively with standard methods currently in use at the Seismic Network of the lstituto Nazionale di Geofisica. Results from the comparisons show that the new method recognizes seismic phases detected by existing procedures, and in addition, it features a greater sensitivity to smaller signals, without an increase in the number of false alarms. The new method was tested on real continuous data and artificially simulated high-noise conditions and demonstrated a capability to recognize seismic signals in the presence of high noise. The efficiency of the method is due to a radically different approach to the topic, in that the assertion that a signal is fractal implies a relationship between the spectral amplitude of different frequencies. This relationship allows, for the fractal detector, a complete analysis of the entire frequency range under consideration.

This study presents a series of self-correcting models that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release model are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four models through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release model based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an earthquake to use in stress release models. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release model reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the earthquakes that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003–2012 decade.

This deliverable contains three different products: one table with reclassified slip rate data from DISS, one table with slip rate values calculated from numerical models, and two study cases that illustrate the applications of original methods to estimate slip rate.

Abstract Seismic data users and people managing a seismic network take a great interest in the potentiality of the data, with the difference that the former look at stability, the latter at improvements. In this work, we measure the performances of the Italian Telemetered Seismic Network in the years 1985-2002 by defining basic significant parameters and studying their evolution during those years. Then, we deal with the geological methods used to characterise or to plan seismic station deployments in a few cases. Last, we define the gain of the network as the percentage of well-located earthquakes with respect to the total recorded earthquakes. By analysing the distribution of non-located (“missed”) earthquakes, we suggest possible actions to take in order to increase the gain. Results show that completeness magnitude is 2.4 in the average over the analysed period, and it can be as low as 2.2 when we consider non-located earthquakes as well. Parameters such as the minimum recording distance and the RMS of the location decrease with time, reflecting improvements in the location quality. Methods for geologic and seismological characterisation of a possible station site also resulted to be effective. Finally, we represent the number of missed earthquakes at each station, showing that nine stations control more than 50% of all missed earthquakes, and suggesting areas in Italy where the network might be easily improved.

he Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING) Seismic Network Database (ISND) includes over 300000 arrivaI times of Italian, Mediterranean and teleseismic earthquakes from 1983 to date. This database is a useful tool for Italian and foreign seismologists ( over 1000 data requests in the first 6 months of this year). Recently (1994) the ING began storing in the ISND, the digital waveforms associated with arri,Tal times and experimen- tally allowed users to retrieve waveforms recorded by the ING acquisition system. In this paper we describe the types of data stored and the interactive and batch procedures available to obtain arrivaI times and/or asso- ciated waveforms. The ISND is reachable via telephone line, P.S.I., Internet and DecNet. Users can read and send to their E-mail address alI selected earthquakes locations, parameters, arrivaI times and associated digital waveforms (in SAC, SUDS or ASCII format). For r;aedium or large amounts of data users can ask to receive data by means of magnetic media (DAT, Video 8, floppy disk).