NATO STO CMRE

Smart, sustainable and inclusive Blue Growth means also knowing past technology and the paths followed by ancients in order to understand and monitor marine environments. In general, history of Science is a matter that is not enough explored and explained or promoted in high schools or university official programmes, and, usually, scientist do not consider it as an important part of their curricula. However, bad or good ideas, abandoned or forgotten beliefs, concepts, opinions, do still have a great potential for inspiring present and future scientists, no matter in which historical period they may have been formulated: they should be always be taken into consideration, critically examined and observed by a very close point of view, not just as part of the intellectual framework of some obsolete ‘Cabinet of Curiosities’ with limited access except for the chosen few. Moreover, history of Science should be transmitted in a more practical way, with hands-on labs showing the limits and challenges that prior generations of ocean explorers, investigators and seafarers had to face in order to answer to crucial questions as self-orientation in open sea, understanding main currents and waves, predicting meteorological conditions for a safe navigation. Oceanography is a relatively young branch of science, and still needs further approvals and knowledge (National Science Foundation, 2000). The Scientific Dissemination Group (SDG) “La Spezia Gulf of Science” – made up by Research Centres, Schools and Cultural associations located in La Spezia (Liguria, Italy) - has a decadal experience in initiatives aimed at people and groups of people of all ages, who are keen on science or who can be guided in any case to take an interest in scientific matters (Locritani et al., 2015). Amongst the SDG activities, the tight relationship with the Historical Oceanography Society, the Italian Navy and the Naval Technical Museum (that collects a rich heritage of civilization, technology and culture witnesses, related to the naval history of seamanship from the origins up to nowadays), allowed the creation of a special educational format based on Historical Oceanography, for university and high school students as an integration for their curriculum. The Historical Oceanography Society has provided the major knowledges included in the ancient volumes of its archive, thanks to the availability of its members that also held theoretical and practical lessons during the course. The present paper will describe the one-week special course (about 60 hours of theory and practice with technical visits to Research centres and Museums) that has been planned to be carried out on board of the Italian Training Navy Ship (A. Vespucci) and has been organized in order to give the hints about on board life, as well as theoretical lessons on modern and historical oceanography, hands-on labs on oceanographic instruments from public and private collections, physiology of diving techniques and astronomy. The general aim of this course has been, hence, to give to excellent students all those technological but also creative and imaginative features of our past.

The overall objective of this proposal is to build an advanced and original prototype specifically devoted to seafloor and water-column monitoring as starting Italian contribution to the further development of the EMSO Ligurian Sea node. In detail the aim of the observatory is to ensure realtime continuous acquisition of geophysical, oceanographic and biological data by a cable system from a marine depth of about 500 m to the shore station.

The use of Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) which optimally combine different models, has been shown to significantly improve atmospheric weather and climate predictions. In the highly dynamic coastal ocean, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data, and the limited skill of operational models at the meso-scale have so far limited the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state-of-the-art super-ensemble techniques in which SEPTR (a trawl-resistant bottom mounted instrument platform transmitting data in near real-time) temperature profile data are combined with outputs from eight ocean models run in a coastal area during the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) experiment in 2006. New Kalman filter and particle filter based SE methods, which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty, are compared to standard SE techniques and numerical models. Results show that dynamic SE are able to significantly improve prediction skill. In particular, the particle filter SE copes with non-Gaussian error statistics and provides robust and reduced uncertainty estimates.

Within the framework of the European LESSLOSS Project “Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides”, finite-fault seismological models have been proposed for the computation of earthquake scenarios for three urban areas: Istanbul (Turkey), Lisbon (Portugal) and Thessaloniki (Greece). For each case study, ground motion scenarios were developed for the two most probable events with different return periods (generally 50 and 500 years), locations and magnitudes that were derived from historical and geological data. The ground motion simulations were performed in the frequency band of engineering interest (0.5-20 Hz) by two numerical finite-fault methods: a hybrid deterministic-stochastic method, DSM, used for all of the cases investigated, and a non-stationary stochastic finite-fault simulation method, RSSIM, applied only in the case of Lisbon. In the present study, the results with respect to bedrock and surface are presented in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city of Lisbon and the surrounding area, using earthquake scenarios from the onshore source area of the Lower Tagus Valley, and from the offshore source area of the Marques de Pombal fault, which is one of the possible sources of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. Site effects are evaluated by means of a properly designed equivalent stochastic non-linear one-dimensional ground response analyses of stratified soil profile units. The requirements of the users (e.g., engineers, local administrators) constrain the choice of the scenario that can be adopted as input for disaster scenario predictions and loss modelling; in the case of Lisbon, the maximum values of shaking were assumed as the criteria for the reference scenarios.

In the framework of the ongoing European project “LESSLOSS – Risk Mitigation for Earthquakes and Landslides” two sub-projects are devoted to earthquake disaster scenario predictions and loss modeling for urban areas and infrastructures. This paper is dealing with the sub-project 10, SP10, Task Programme “Scenario earthquake definitions for three cities”. Finite-fault seismological models are proposed to compute the earthquake scenarios for three urban areas – Istanbul (Turkey), Lisbon (Portugal) and Thessaloniki (Greece). For each case study, ground motion scenarios are developed for the most probable two events with different return periods, locations and magnitudes derived from historical and geological data. In this study, we simulate the accelerometric time series and response spectra for high frequency ground motion in the city of Lisbon and surrounding counties (Metropolitan Area of Lisbon), using two possible earthquake models: the inland source area of Lower Tagus Valley, M 5.7 (4.7) and a hypothesis of the offshore source area of the 1755 Lisbon, M 7.6. The non-stationary stochastic method RSSIM (Carvalho et al. 2004) and a new hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach, DSM (Pacor et al., 2005) are used in order to evaluate the ground shaking and to characterize its spatial variability. Then the site effects are evaluated by means of an equivalent stochastic non-linear one-dimensional ground response analysis of stratified soil profile units properly designed. Results are here presented in terms of PGA maps, for offshore and inland scenarios. The mean and worst shaking scenarios for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon have been delineated at the bedrock. Local effects amplify the synthetic PGA values by approximately a factor of 2. This means that PGA values computed for bedrock in Lisbon city can increase from 0.12g up to 0.25g and up to 0.5g in surroundings, for the inland scenario, and from 0.045g up to 0.090g for a M7.6 offshore scenario.