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Centro PLINIUS-LUPT, Università degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”, Italy
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- PublicationRestrictedOperational (short-term) earthquake loss forecasting in Italy(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Iervolino, I.; Università di Napoli Federico II ;Chioccarelli, E.; Università di Napoli Federico II ;Giorgio, M.; Seconda Università degli Studi di Napoli ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Zuccaro, G.; Università di Napoli Federico II ;Dolce, M.; Dipartimento della Protezione Civile ;Manfredi, G.; Università di Napoli Federico II; ;; ; ; ; The seismological community is currently developing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems that aim to estimate, based on continuous ground motion recording by seismic networks, the rates of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in an area of interest and in a short-period of time (days to weeks); i.e., the seismicity. OEF may be possibly used for short-term seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms only if its results may be the input to compute, in a probabilistically sound manner, consequence-based risk metrics. The present paper reports the investigation about feasibility of short-term risk assessment, or operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), in Italy. The approach is that of performance-based earthquake engineering, where the loss rates are computed by means of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The risk is expressed in terms of individual and regional measures, which are based on short-term macroseismic intensity, or ground motion intensity, hazard. The vulnerability of the built environment relies on damage probability matrices empirically calibrated for Italian structural classes, and exposure data in terms of buildings per vulnerability class and occupants per building typology. All vulnerability and exposure data are at the municipality scale. The procedure set-up, which is virtually independent on the seismological model used, is implemented in an experimental OELF system, which continuously process OEF information to produce weekly nationwide risk maps. This is illustrated by a retrospective application to the 2012 Pollino (southern Italy) seismic sequence, which provides insights on the capabilities of the system and on the impact, on short-term risk assessment, of the methodology currently used for OEF in Italy.451 34 - PublicationRestrictedDeveloping an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius(2008)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Neri, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Aspinall, W. P.; University of Bristol, Bristol, UK ;Cioni, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Bertagnini, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Baxter, P. J.; Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK ;Zuccaro, G.; Centro PLINIUS-LUPT, Università degli Studi di Napoli “Federico II”, Italy ;Andronico, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia ;Barsotti, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Cole, P. D.; Department of Geography, Environment and Disaster Management, University of Coventry, Coventry, UK ;Esposti Ongaro, T.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Hincks, T. K.; University of Bristol, Bristol, UK ;Macedonio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;Papale, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Rosi, M.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy ;Santacroce, R.; Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy ;Woo, G.; Aspinall and Associates, UK; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available335 50 - PublicationOpen AccessEmergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach(2008-12-20)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Baxter, P. J.; Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK ;Aspinall, W. P.; Aspinall & Associates, Beaconsfield, Buckinghamshire, UK ;Neri, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Zuccaro, G.; PLINIVS, LUPT Centre, University of Naples, Naples, Italy ;Spence, R. J. S.; Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK ;Cioni, R.; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Cagliari, Cagliari, Italia ;Woo, G.; Risk Management Solutions, London, UK; ; ; ; ; ; Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.699 2719 - PublicationRestrictedMonitoring system of buildings with high vulnerability in presence of slow ground deformations (The Campi Flegrei, Italy, case)(2011)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Pingue, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;Petrazzuoli, S. M.; Study Centre PLINIVS, University of Naples ‘‘Federico II’’, Naples, Italy ;Obrizzo, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;Tammaro, U.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;De Martino, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;Zuccaro, G.; Study Centre PLINIVS, University of Naples ‘‘Federico II’’, Naples, Italy; ; ; ; ; In this work we illustrate the results of some laboratory and full scale experiments which have the purposes of analysing the performance of different types of monitoring equipments in detection of damage level in masonry buildings. Such experiments involved monitoring, by means of optical fibre strain-metre and total laser station, of a selected building that, owing to its position in the active caldera of the Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy), could undergo remarkable ground shaking and large, although very slow, ground movements (bradyseismic crises) of volcanic origin. The field geodetic monitoring has been realised by an automatic system of topographical 3D survey, based on two automatic Total Station Leica TCA2003 and by increasing the number of benchmarks of the levelling network in the area near the building. The experiments have shown that structure deformations caused by elastic phase, when the building undergoes elastic deformation, is close or under the limit of detection through laser total station (about 1–2 mm), while, when the damage occurs, deformations increase up to values beyond 10–20 mm easily detectable by geodetic methods. The optical fibre monitoring provides good results in elastic phase, whereas as the damage level rises up the data become more and more difficult to understand. In conclusion the paper shows that the geodetic techniques are very useful in structural quasi real-time monitoring for analysing the behaviour of masonry buildings damaged by ground movements induced by landslide phenomena, bradyseism or intrinsic structural yielding.500 50