Department of Geology, American University of Beirut, Lebanon

The Dead Sea Transform Fault constitutes the northwestern boundary of the Arabian plate, accommodating the plate’s lateral movement relative to the African plate. A complete and homogeneous catalogue of historical earthquakes has been compiled and used in the subdivision of the fault area into the following segments: 1) Araba segment, which extends along Wadi Araba and the southernmost part of the Dead Sea (29.5°-31.3°N) and trends SSW-NNE with scarce historical and instrumental seismicity; 2) Jordan-valley segment, which extends along the central and northern parts of the Dead Sea and the Jordan valley to the Huleh depression (31.3°-33.1° N) and trends S-N with moderate historical seismicity; 3) Beqa’a segment, which extends along the western margin of the Beqa’a valley in Lebanon (33.1°-34.5°N) and trends SSW-NNE with strong historical seismicity; 4) El-Ghab segment, which extends along the eastern flank of the coastal mountain range of Syria (34.5°-35.8°N) and trends S-N with moderate historical seismicity; 5) Karasu segment, which extends along the Karasu valley in SE Turkey (35.8°-37.3°N) and trends SSW-NNE, exhibiting the strongest historical seismicity of the area. Probabilities for the generation of strong (M > 6.0) earthquakes in these segments during the next decade are given, by the application of the regional time and magnitude predictable model.