The Head of Tectono-Electromagnetic Laboratory, Schmidt United Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

The problem of short-term earthquake precursors is discussed. In contrast to the increasing number of reports on short-lived precursors of various types, direct strain measurements cannot detect clearly expressed preseismic anomalies, as follows from the aseismic nucleation mechanism. Based on previously published data and the assumption that the attenuation of the stress-strain field is proportional to r- 3, a possible scenario of the final stage of earthquake nucleation process is proposed on the basis of the slip weakening mechanism in the source and the associated mosaic pattern of precursors on the Earth’s surface. The formulas for estimating the maximum distance of precursor detection and minimum duration of the final stage of inelastic deformation preceding brittle failure of rocks are derived. The data of electromagnetic precursors are interpreted in terms of a skin-layer model. A considerable increase in strain rates at the final stage of the earthquake nucleation provides an opportunity to explain teleseismic effects before strong earthquakes in terms of normalized epicenter distance. The modeling results are compared with in situ observations.

The alternative view of the current status and perspective of seismic prediction studies is discussed. In the problem of ascertainment of the uncertainty relation Cognoscibility-Unpredictability of Earthquakes, priorities of works on short-term earthquake prediction are defined due to the advantage that the final stage of nucleation of earthquake is characterized by a substantial activation of the process while its strain rate increases by the orders of magnitude and considerably increased signal-to-noise ratio. Based on the creep phenomenon under stress relaxation conditions, a model is proposed to explain different images of precursors of impending tectonic earthquakes. The onset of tertiary creep appears to correspond to the onset of instability and inevitably fails unless it is unloaded. At this stage, the process acquires the self-regulating character and to the greatest extent the property of irreversibility, one of the important components of prediction reliability. Data in situ suggest a principal possibility to diagnose the process of preparation by ground measurements of strain-rate-dependent parameters, like electromagnetic emission, etc. Laboratory tests of the measurements of acoustic and electromagnetic emission in the rocks under constant strain in the condition of self-relaxed stress until the moment of fracture are discussed in context. It was obtained that electromagnetic emission precedes but does not accompany the phase of macrocrack development.