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Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA
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- PublicationRestrictedGEMS: the opportunity for stress-forecasting all damaging earthquakes worldwide(2006-09-28T11:48:26Z)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Crampin, S.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK; also at Edinburgh Anisotropy Project, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Zatsepin, S. V.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Browitt, C. W. A.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Keilis-Borok, V. I.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; also at Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA ;Suyehiro, K.; JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan ;Gao, Y.; Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China ;Walter, L.; Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA; ; ; ; ; ; A new understanding of rock deformation allows the accumulation of stress before earthquakes to be monitored by using shear-wave splitting to assess stress-induced changes to microcrack geometry. Using swarms of small earthquakes as the source of shear-waves, such stress accumulations have been recognised with hindsight before some fifteen earthquakes worldwide. On one occasion the time, magnitude, and fault-break of an M 5 earthquake was successfully stress-forecast in a comparatively narrow magnitude/time window. However, suitable swarms of small earthquakes are very uncommon, and routine forecasting requires measurements of controlled-source observations at bore-hole Stress-Monitoring Sites (SMSs). A prototype SMS confirmed that both science and technology are effective for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes, and the sensitivity is such that a network of SMSs, on a 400 km-grid, say, could stress-forecast all M ≥ 5 earthquakes, that is all damaging earthquakes, within the grid. This paper suggests that a Global Earthquake Monitoring System (GEMS) could forecast all damaging earthquakes in both developing and developed countries worldwide.173 11