Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, Finland

The difficult problem of distinguishing underground nuclear explosions from earthquakes at teleseismie distances was approached using short period seismic data from 6 stations in South and Central Finland. The events were nuclear tests mostly from the Semipalatinsk and Lop Nor test sites and earthquakes from adjacent areas. The magnitude range of the events was from 4.1 to 6.6. The features of the two classes of events were examined by computing spectral ratio, third moment of frequency (TMF) and complexity from P wave signals. The spectral discrimination parameters were extracted from spectra computed in 5 different ways in order to obtain all possible information even from weak events. The standard FFT spectra were computed from. raw data, after noise adaption and data adaption, from correlograms and using combinations of adaption and correlation: methods. This was done to employ not only the spectral differences of the events but also the temporal variation of energy and lack of it as a function of frequency. The optimum frequeney windows for spectral ratio and TMF were defined using stacked spectra of about 10 events from both classes. No single discriminant could classify all the events. Their performance varied significanfly for different stations, but on average the spectral discriminants had slightly higher discrimination capability than complexity. The distributions of all discriminants were studied and a group separation function was formed using an optimum set of discriminants. Instead of discriminant values their relative positions in the corresponding distributions of nuelear tests and earthquakes were used as inputs to the function. A weight for each discriminant was derived from the amount of overlap in the distributions of earthquakes and nuelear tests. All 75 events in the data set were correctly classified with the method. The testing was performed with a jack knife method to create an independent test data base

We review historical earthquake research in Northern Europe. 'Historical' is defined as being identical with seismic events occurring in the pre-instrumental and early instrumental periods between 1073 and the mid-1960s. The first seismographs in this region were installed in Uppsala, Sweden and Bergen, Norway in 1904-1905, but these mechanical pendulum instruments were broad band and amplification factors were modest at around 500. Until the 1960s few modern short period electromagnetic seismographs were deployed. Scientific earthquake studies in this region began during the first decades of the 1800s, while the systematic use of macroseismic questionnaires commenced at the end of that century. Basic research efforts have vigorously been pursued from the 1970s onwards because of the mandatory seismic risk studies for commissioning nuclear power plants in Sweden, Finland, NW Russia, Kola and installations of huge oil platforms in the North Sea. The most comprehensive earthquake database currently available for Northern Europe is the FENCAT catalogue covering about six centuries and representing the accumulation of work conducted by many scientists during the last 200 years. This catalogue is given in parametric form, while original macroseismic observations and intensity maps for the largest earthquakes can be found in various national publications, often in local languages. No database giving intensity data points exists in computerized form for the region. The FENCAT catalogue still contains some spurious events of various kinds but more serious are some recent claims that some of the presumed largest historical earthquakes have been assigned too large magnitude values, which would have implications for earthquake hazard levels implemented in national building codes. We discuss future cooperative measures such as establishing macroseismic data archives as a means for promoting further research on historical earthquakes in Northern Europe.

The automatic analysing capability of the three component substation called hereafter also FIA1 (coordinates: 61.4444°N, 26.0793°E) is studied. The detections and daily bulletins of FINESA (renamed as FINESS since August 1993) are used as a basis of the study. At the three component substation FIA1 a detector bulletin producer of type Husebye Ruudwas used to detect events and after forming a single station daily bulletin the common detections with FINESA were taken into a more detailed examination. From 689 detections of FINESA (also referred to as FIAO) the three component substation could associate 258 events. The main part of events were mining and quarry explosions in Estonia, Russia, north of St. Petersburg and Finland, at distances up to 250 km. The diurnal distribution of events was studied and the connections to certain mines were attempted to be determined. It is found that certain mining areas have very specified shooting times, thus making it possible to monitor this kind of areas under predefined procedure. The median difference of azimuths obtained from the three component station compared with FINESA azimuths was 50 and the median difference of distance was as small as 6.2 km. In these comparisons the siting of the three component sensor was not taken into account, even though it is not located in the centre of the array. The main sources of location differences are found to be the errors of azimuth and veiled later phases. Sometimes the phase pickings of the two different methods did not give any coinciding results, even though the P detections occurred simultaneously. Also, the deviation of azimuths under poor SNR circumstances caused clear location biases. To investigate the detection and locating performance of the three component sub station FIA1 at local and regional distances, the results were compared with the preliminary weekly analysis and Helsinki bulletins of the Finnish National Data Centre (FNDC), which handled 480 events during the test period. Altogether 205 events located by FIA1 could easily be connected with the results of the Finnish National Data Centre. The median errors in azimuth and distance of these connected events were quite small, 8.9° and 9.1 lan, respectively.

A probabilistic approach was applied to map the seismic hazard in Greece and the surrounding region. The procedure does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones and allows for the use of the whole seismological record, comprising both historical and instrumental data, available for the region of interest. The new seismic hazard map prepared for Greece and its vicinity specifies a 10% probability of exceedance of the given Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for shallow seismicity and intermediate soil conditions for an exposure time of 50 years. When preparing the map, the new PGA attenuation relation given by Margaris et al. (2001) was employed. The new map shows a spatial distribution of the seismic hazard that corresponds well with the features of shallow seismicity within the examined region. It depicts the level of seismic hazard in which the exceedance of the PGA value of 0.25 g may be expected to occur within limited areas. The highest estimated levels of seismic hazard inside the territory of Greece are found in the Northern Sporades Islands, where PGA values in excess of 0.50 g are reached at individual sites, and in the Zante Island in Western Greece, where PGA values in the range of 0.35 g to 0.40 g are obtained at more numerous localities. High values are also observed in the sea between the Karpathos and Rhodes islands, near the Island of Amorgos (Cyclades Archipelago) and in the Southwestern Peloponnesus. The levels of seismic hazard at the sites of seven Greek cities (Athens, Jannena, Kalamata, Kozani, Larisa, Rhodes and Thessaloniki) were also estimated in terms of probabilities that a given PGA value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at those sites. These probabilities were based on the maximum horizontal PGA values obtained by applying the design earthquake procedure, and the respective median values obtained were 0.24 g for Athens, 0.28 g for Jannena, 0.30 g for Kalamata, 0.21 g for Kozani, 0.24 g for Larisa, 0.43 g for Rhodes and 0.35 g for Thessaloniki. The probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum possible PGA value were also calculated for the cities to illustrate the uncertainty of maximum PGA assessment.