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Geology & Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii USA
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- PublicationOpen AccessIntegrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context: the ADVISE model(2021-10)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle.60 10 - PublicationRestrictedProximal tephra hazards: Recent eruption studies applied to volcanic risk in the Auckland volcanic field, New Zealand(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Houghton, B. F.; Geology & Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii USA ;Bonadonna, C.; Geology & Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii USA ;Gregg, C. E.; Geology & Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii USA ;Johnston, D. M.; Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand ;Cousins, W. J.; Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand ;Cole, J. W.; Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand ;Del Carlo, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; Auckland, New Zealand is unique in being a metropolitan area built on an active volcanic field. Despite the small size and intensity of Auckland eruptions, the risk from tephra fall is high because of the high density of buildings and lifelines. The nature of this threat can be evaluated by comparisons with historical Strombolian and Hawaiian eruptions, which have occurred in non-populated areas. Cone-building phases of such eruptions are typically protracted, i.e., weeks to months in duration, prolonging the period during which emergency managers will have to fine tune mitigation for numerous parameters such as fluctuations in intensity and wind shifts. Rapid cone growth during future eruptions will define a region of some 30 to 100 ha where complete destruction will occur on a time scale of hours. The cost of this destruction is likely to range between NZ$200M and NZ$1.4B (ca. US$130M to US$900M). Beyond this, we have modeled the cumulative long-term effect of the build-up of a downwind blanket of lapilli and ash by estimating accumulation rates for three phases of the 1959 Kīlauea Iki eruption in Hawaii. The effect of changing wind direction was evaluated using low-level wind data from Auckland. These results show that intervals between 4 and 100 h will lapse before onset of significant damage to buildings.165 25