University of Bologna

Pressurized cavities are commonly used to compute ground deformation in volcanic areas: the set of available solutions is limited and in some cases the moment tensors inferred from inversion of geodetic data cannot be associated with any of the available models. Two different source models (pure tensile source, TS and mixed tensile/shear source, MS) are studied using a boundary element approach for rectangular dislocations buried in a homogeneous elastic medium employing a new C/C++ code which provides a new implementation of the dc3d Okada fortran code. Pressurized triaxial cavities are obtained assigning the overpressure in the middle of each boundary element distributed over the cavity surface. The MS model shows a moment domain very similar to triaxial ellipsoidal cavities. The TS and MS models are also compared in terms of the total volume increment limiting the analysis to cubic sources: the observed discrepancy (~10%) is interpreted in terms of the different deformation of the source interior which provides significantly different internal contributions (~30%). Comparing the MS model with a Mogi source with the some volume, the overpressure of the latter must be ~37% greater than the former, in order to obtain the same surface deformation; however the outward expansion and the inner contraction separately differ by ~±10% and the total volume increments differ only by ~2%. Thus, the density estimations for the intrusion extracted from the MS model and the Mogi model are nearly identical.

Dikes and sills are the moving building blocks of the plumbing system of volcanoes and play a fundamental role in the accretionary processes of the crust. They nucleate, propagate, halt, resume propagation, and sometimes change trajectory with drastic implications for the outcome of eruptions (Sigmundsson et al., 2010). Their dynamics is still poorly understood, in particular when different external influencing factors are interacting. Here we apply a boundary element model to study dike and sill formation, propagation and arrest in different scenarios. We model dikes as finite batches of compressible fluid magma, propagating quasi-statically in an elastic medium, and calculate their trajectories by maximising the energy release of the magma-rock system. We consider dike propagation in presence of density layering, of density plus rigidity layering, of a weakly welded interface between layers, under the action of an external stress field (of tectonic or topographic origin). Our simulations predict sill formation in several situations: i) when a horizontal weak interface is met by a propagating dike; ii) when a sufficiently high compressive tectonic environment is experienced by the ascending dike and iii) in case a dike, starting below a volcanic edifice, propagates away from the topographic load with a low dip angle. We find that dikes halt and stack when they become negatively buoyant and when they propagate with low overpressure at their upper tip toward a topographic load. Neutral buoyancy by itself cannot induce dikes to turn into sills, as previously suggested.

The 1982-84 unrest episode at Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera, Italy, was characterized by huge deformation (more than 1.5 m uplift) concentrated inside the caldera. According to point source isotropic models in homogeneous elastic and visco-elastic half-spaces, the source depth is very shallow (about 3 km). If the source radius is about 1 km this implies that magma is at a depth of 2 km depth. However, several independent observations show that the top of the magma chamber at CF must be deeper than 4 km. This paper investigates how the inferred source depth increases when rigidity heterogeneities (obtained through seismic tomography at CF) are considered and when the long-term deformation takes place under drained conditions. Finite element models indicate that overpressure needed at the source to reproduce the 1.5 m maximum uplift is however beyond typical rock strength values. This evidence, together with the high thermal anomalies, the presence of fluids and the low cohesion of tuffs filling the caldera, suggests the use of elastoplastic constitutive laws. For elastoplastic behavior, the same deformation is obtained using a deeper source (with center at 5 km depth) and a lower overpressure (than required by elastic models). The plastic deformation concentrates both at the source boundaries and above the source, where seismic activity has been recorded. These results indicate that the rheological properties of the shallow crust of CF have important implications for hazard estimate during unrest episodes.

Ground deformation is commonly observed at active volcanoes, where it represents a reliable sign of unrest and a potential precursor of eruptive activity. The source of deformation, however, is not always unequivocally constrained. Magma ascent and differentiation are generally involved, but hydrothermal fluids may play a role, due to thermal expansion and pore pressure acting on rocks. The identification of mechanisms driving ground displacement bears important consequences for hazard evaluation. The aim of this work is to evaluate mechanical effects associated with pressurization and heating of hydrothermal fluids. We first simulate the heat and fluid flow driven by the arrival of magmatic fluids from greater depth. Then, we calcu- late the rock deformation arising from simulated pressure and temperature changes within a shallow hydrothermal system. We employ a mathematical model, based on the linear theory of thermo-poro-elasticity and on a system of distributed equivalent forces. Results show that stronger degassing of a magmatic source may cause several centimeters of uplift.

Monitoring of quiescent volcanoes, such as Campi Flegrei (Italy), involves the measurement of geochemical and geophysical parameters that are expected to change as eruptive conditions approach. Some of these changes are associated with the hydrothermal activity that is driven by the release of heat and magmatic fluids. This work focuses on the properties of the porous medium and on their effects on the signals generated by the circulating fluids. The TOUGH2 porous media flow model is applied to simulate a shallow hydrothermal system fed by a source of magmatic fluids. The simulated activity of the source, with periods of increased fluid discharge, generates changes in gas composition, gravity, and ground deformation. The same boundary conditions and source activity were applied to simulate the evolution of homogeneous and heterogeneous systems, characterized by different rock properties. Phase distribution, fluid composition, and the related signals depend on the nature and properties of the rock sequence through which the fluids propagate. Results show that the distribution of porosity and permeability affects all the observable parameters, controlling the timing and the amplitude of their changes through space and time. Preferential pathways for fluid ascent favor a faster evolution, with larger changes near permeable channels. Slower changes over wider areas characterize less permeable systems. These results imply that monitoring signals do not simply reflect the evolution of the magmatic system: intervening rocks leave a marked signature that should be taken into account when monitoring data are used to infer system conditions at depth.

The deformation history of the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decades consists of two large uplift events in 1970-72 and 1982-84, with ~ 3.5 m cumula-tive uplift, occurring at a rate of ~ 1 m/yr. Both events were accompanied by seismic activity, gravity changes and compositional variations of volcanic gasesbut no eruption took place. During the following decades,the area has been slowly subsiding but minor uplift episodes (~ a few cm), seismic swarms and changes in degassing activitytook place, showing that the area persistedin a near-critical state.Since 2004, ground deformation resumed, although at a slower rate, totaling a displacement of ~ 0.6 m at the time we write(2019). In this chapter,we present a retrospective analysis of ground deformationleading to acritical re-evaluationof the 1982-84 uplift and of the following deflation, employing the most updated modeling techniques. Deformation and gravity data provide important constraints on depth, volume, mass density and dislocation mechanisms accompanying mag-ma emplacement processes but the correct evaluation of these parameters is strongly conditioned by simplifying assumptions built in the different inversion procedures: in particular, the inferred depth ranges from 5.5 km to less than 3 km and the intrusion density ranges from values pertinent to aqueous fluids to typical magmatic values. This review depicts the salient phases of the deformationhistory of this densely populated and high risk volcanic area, helping to address debated issues, such as the role of the magmatic system, and theirinteraction with the shal-lower hydrothermal system.In spite of the mentioned difficulties, the following conclusion may be considered as firmly established: during 1982-84 a magmatic intrusion took place, and the subsequent complex deformation history (1985-2010) was mainly controlled by the exsolution of volatiles withmagmatic origin and their interaction with a shallow hydrothermal system. However, data collected af-ter 2011 were modelled in terms of a deeperinflating source of deformation, pos-sibly resulting froma resumed magmatic recharge at depth.

Changes in water level are commonly reported in regions struck by a seismic event. The sign and amplitude of such changes depend on the relative position of measuring points with respect to the hypocenter, and on the poroelastic properties of the rock. We apply a porous media flow model (TOUGH2) to describe groundwater flow and water‐level changes associated with the first ML5.9 mainshock of the 2012 seismic sequence in Emilia (Italy). We represent the earthquake as an instantaneous pressure step, whose amplitude was inferred from the properties of the seismic source inverted from geodetic data. The results are consistent with the evolution recorded in both deep and shallow water wells in the area and suggest that our description of the seismic event is suitable to capture both timing and magnitude of water‐level changes. We draw some conclusions about the influence of material heterogeneity on the pore pressure evolution, and we show that to reproduce the observed maximum amplitude it is necessary to take into account compaction in the shallow layer.

We develop a mathematical model describing dyke propagation in proximity of an elastic discontinuity of the embedding medium. The dyke is modelled as a fluid-filled crack in plane strain configuration employing the boundary element method. The pressure gradient along the crack is assumed proportional to the difference between the densities of the host rock and the fluid. Mass conservation is imposed during propagation and fluid compressibility is taken into account. The path followed by the crack is found by maximizing the total energy release, given by the sum of the elastic and gravitational contributions. The mathematical simulations provide a sort of ‘refraction phenomenon’, that is a sudden change in the direction of propagation when the crack crosses the boundary separating different rigidities: if the dyke enters a softer medium, its path deviates towards the vertical, if the dyke enters a harder medium its path deviates away from the vertical and may even become arrested as a horizontal sill along the interface, if the rigidity contrast is large. Gravitational energy plays a major role during propagation; in particular, in proximity of layer boundaries, this role is enhanced by the shift of the centre of mass due to changes of dyke shape. Mathematical results were validated by laboratory experiments performed injecting tilted air-filled cracks through gelatin layers with different rigidities.

Since 1993, geodetic data obtained by different techniques (GPS, EDM, SAR, levelling) have detected a consistent inflation of the Mt. Etna volcano. The inflation, culminating with the 1998– 2001 strong explosive activity from summit craters and recent 2001 and 2002 flank eruptions, is interpreted in terms of magma ascent and refilling of the volcanic plumbing system and reservoirs. We have modelled the 1993–1997 EDM and GPS data by 3-D pressurized sources to infer the position and dimension of the magma reservoir. We have performed analytical inversions of the observed deformation using both spheroidal and ellipsoidal sources embedded in a homogeneous elastic half-space and by applying different inversion methods. Solutions for these types of sources show evidence of a vertically elongated magma reservoir located 6 km beneath the summit craters. The maximum elevation of topography is comparable to such depth and strong heterogeneities are inferred from seismic tomography; in order to assess their importance, further 3-D numerical models, employing source parameters extracted from analytical models, have been developed using the finite-element technique. The deformation predicted by all the models considered shows a general agreement with the 1993–1997 data, suggesting the primary role of a pressure source, while the complexities of the medium play a minor role under elastic conditions. However, major discrepancies between data and models are located in the SE sector, suggesting that sliding along potential detachment surfaces may contribute to amplify deformation during the inflation. For the first time realistic features of Mt. Etna are studied by a 3-D numerical model characterized by the topography and lateral variations of elastic structure, providing a framework for a deeper insight into the relationships between internal sources and tectonic structures.

Deformation of the ground surface in volcanic areas is generally recognized as a reliable indicator of unrest, possibly resulting from the intrusion of fresh magma within the shallow rock layers. The intrusion process is usually represented by a deformation source such as an ellipsoidal pressurized cavity, embedded within a homogeneous and elastic half-space. Similar source models allow inferring the depth, the location and the (incremental) volume of the intrusion, which are very important parameters for volcanic risk implications. However, assuming a homogeneous and elastic rheology and, assigning a priori the shape and the mechanism of the source (within a very restricted “library” of available solutions) may bias considerably the inference of source parameters. In complete generality, any point source deformation, including overpressure sources, may be described in terms of a suitable moment tensor, while the assumption of an overpressure source strongly restricts the variety of allowable moment tensors. In particular, by assuming a pressurized cavity, we rule out the possibility that either shear failure may precede magma emplacement (seismically induced intrusion) or may accompany it (mixed tensile and shear mode fracture). Another possibility is that a pre-existent weakness plane may be chosen by the ascending magma (fracture toughness heterogeneity). We perform joint inversion of levelling and EDM data (part of latter are unpublished), collected during the 1982-84 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera: a 43% misfit reduction is obtained for a general moment source if the elastic heterogeneities computed from seismic tomography are accouted for. The inferred source is at 5.2 km depth but cannot be interpreted as a simple pressurized cavity. Moreover, if mass conservation is accounted for, magma emplaced within a shallow source must come from a (generally deeper) reservoir, which is usually assumed to be deep enough to be simply neglected. At Campi Flegrei, seismic tomography indicates that the “deep” magma source is rather shallow (at 7-8 km depth), so that its presence should be included in any thorough attempt to source modeling. Taking into account a deflating source at 7.5 km depth (represented either as a horizontal sill or as an isotropic cavity) and an inflating moment source, the fit of both levelling and EDM data improves further (misfit reduction 80%), but still the best fitting moment source (at 5.5 km depth) falls outside the range of pressurized ellipsoidal cavities. The shallow moment source may be decomposed in a tensile and a shear dislocation. No clue is obtained that the shear and the tensile mechanisms should be located in different positions. Our favourite interpretation is in terms of a crack opening in mixed tensile and shear mode, as would be provided by fluid magma unwelding pre-stressed solid rock. Although this decomposition of the source is not unique, the proposed solution is physically motivated by the minimum overpressure requirement. An important implication of this new interpretation is that the magma emplaced in the shallow moment source during the 1982-84 unrest was not added to already resident magma at the same position.