Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9871
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dc.contributor.authorallAlbarello, D.; Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Universita` degli Studi di Sienaen
dc.contributor.authorallD’Amico, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen
dc.date.accessioned2015-06-11T12:12:04Zen
dc.date.available2015-06-11T12:12:04Zen
dc.date.issued2015-03en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/9871en
dc.description.abstractThis review addresses long-term (tens of years) seismic ground-motion forecasting (seismic hazard assessment) in the presence of alternative computational models (the so-called epistemic uncertainty affecting hazard estimates). We review the different approaches that have been proposed to manage epistemic uncertainty in the context of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Ex-ante procedures (based on the combination of expert judgments about inherent characteristics of the PSHA model) and expost approaches (based on empirical comparison of model outcomes and observations) should not be considered as mutually exclusive alternatives but can be combined in a coherent Bayesian view. Therefore, we propose a procedure that allows a better exploitation of available PSHA models to obtain comprehensive estimates, which account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. We also discuss the respective roles of empirical ex-post scoring and testing of alternative models concurring in the development of comprehensive hazard maps. In order to show how the proposed procedure may work, we also present a tentative application to the Italian area. In particular, four PSHA models are evaluated ex-post against macroseismic effects actually observed in a large set of Italian municipalities during the time span 1957–2006. This analysis shows that, when the whole Italian area is considered, all the models provide estimates that do not agree with the observations. However, two of them provide results that are compatible with observations, when a subregion of Italy (Apulia Region) is considered. By focusing on this area, we computed a comprehensive hazard curve for a single locality in order to show the feasibility of the proposed procedure.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameSpringer Science+Business Media B.V.en
dc.relation.ispartofSurveys in Geophysicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries/36 (2015)en
dc.subjectSeismic hazarden
dc.subjectPSHAen
dc.subjectTestingen
dc.titleScoring and Testing Procedures Devoted to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessmenten
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber269–293en
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motionen
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risken
dc.subject.INGV05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysisen
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10712-015-9316-4en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextrestricteden
dc.relation.issn0169-3298en
dc.relation.eissn1573-0956en
dc.contributor.authorAlbarello, D.en
dc.contributor.authorD’Amico, V.en
dc.contributor.departmentDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Universita` degli Studi di Sienaen
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italiaen
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptDipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, University of Siena-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-9226-4681-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-6133-6750-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.classification.parent05. General-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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