Interseismic ground velocities in Central Apennines from GPS and InSAR measurements: new contributions for seismic hazard models by preliminary results of ESA CHARMING project

Abstract

The contribution of space geodetic techniques to interseismic velocity estimation, and thus seismic hazard modelling, has been recognized since two decades and made possible in more recent years by the increased availability and accuracy of geodetic measurements. We present the preliminary results of a feasibility study performed within the CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). For a 200 km x 200 km study area, covering the Abruzzi region (central Italy) we measure the mean surface deformation rates from Synthetic Aperture Radar and GPS, finding several local to regional deformation gradients consistent with the tectonic context. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.