Tephra hazard assessment at Mt. Etna (Italy)

Abstract

In this paper we present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with both short- and long-lived eruptions. Eruptive scenarios and eruption source parameters were defined based on the geological record, while an advection–diffusion–sedimentation model was used to capture the variation in wind speed and direction with time after calibration with the field data. Two different types of eruptions were considered in our analysis: eruptions associated with strong short-lived plumes and eruptions associated with weak long-lived plumes. Our probabilistic approach was based on one eruption scenario for both types and on an eruption range scenario for eruptions producing weak long-lived plumes. Due to the prevailing wind direction, the eastern flanks are the most affected by tephra deposition, with the 122 BC Plinian and 2002–2003 eruptions showing the highest impact both on infrastructures and agriculture.