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Authors: Rouwet, D.*
Sandri, L.*
Marzocchi, W.*
Gottsmann, J.*
Selva, J.*
Tonini, R.*
Papale, P.*
Title: Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: a review
Title of journal: Journal of Applied Volcanology
Series/Report no.: /3 (20149
Issue Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3
Keywords: Non-magmatic unrest
Volcanic hazard
Volcanic surveillance
Event tree
Abstract: Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.
Appears in Collections:05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
Papers Published / Papers in press

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