Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9259
AuthorsJordan, T. H.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
Michael, A.* 
Gerstenberger, M. C.* 
TitleOperational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness
Issue Date2014
Series/Report no.5/85 (2014)
DOI10.1785/0220140143
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/9259
KeywordsOperational earthquake forecasting
seismic preparedness
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
AbstractWe cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Opera- tional earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time-dependent proba- bilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground-motion exceedance probabilities as well as short-term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long-term forecasts of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA).
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
SRL_Jordan_etal_2014.pdf381.38 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

184
Last Week
0
Last month
checked on Jun 27, 2017

Download(s)

16
checked on Jun 27, 2017

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric