Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9148
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dc.contributor.authorallBizzarri, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.authorallCrupi, P.; Università degli Studi di Bari " Aldo Moro "en
dc.date.accessioned2014-11-17T14:16:17Zen
dc.date.available2014-11-17T14:16:17Zen
dc.date.issued2014-10en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/9148en
dc.description.abstractBy using a single-degree-of-freedom spring-slider analog fault model, we generate a synthetic catalog of nearly 500 different seismic sequences. We explore the parameter space by assuming different values of constitutive parameters and tectonic environment. We also consider three different versions of the ratedependent and state-dependent friction laws [the Dieterich-Ruina (DR), the Ruina-Dieterich (RD) and the Chester-Higgs (CH) models], and different approximations of the behavior of the friction at high sliding speeds, as well as the radiation damping effects. Our results indicate that for all the considered models, the recurrence time (Tcycle) exhibits an inverse proportionality on the loading rate; a linear, positive dependence on the effective normal stress; and a linear, negative dependence on the characteristic distance controlling the state variable evolution. These results confirm and generalize previous studies. Remarkably, we found here that the coefficients of proportionality strongly depend on the adopted friction model, on the high speed behavior and on the reference set of parameters. Notably, we also found that the positive proportionality between Tcycle and the difference b – a, confirmed for DR and RD laws, does not hold in general for the CH law. Overall, we conclude that even in the simplest (and idealized) case of characteristic earthquakes considered here, in which the limiting cycle is reached by the system, and even in the framework of a very simplified fault model, the possibility to a priori predict, through an universal analytical relation, the inter-event time of an impending earthquake still remains only a dream. On the other hand, a numerical prediction of Tcycle would require the exact knowledge of the rheological model (and its parameters at all times over the entire life of the fault) and the actual state of the fault, which indeed are often unknown.en
dc.language.isoEnglishen
dc.publisher.nameSpringer Verlagen
dc.relation.ispartofPure and Applied Geophysicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries10/171(2014)en
dc.subjectEarthquake predictionen
dc.titleLinking the recurrence time of earthquakes to source parameters: A dream or a real possibility?en
dc.typearticleen
dc.description.statusPublisheden
dc.type.QualityControlPeer-revieweden
dc.description.pagenumber2237-2553en
dc.identifier.URLhttp://www.bo.ingv.it/~bizzarrien
dc.subject.INGV04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zonesen
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00024-013-0743-1en
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischioen
dc.description.journalTypeJCR Journalen
dc.description.fulltextrestricteden
dc.relation.issn0033-4553en
dc.relation.eissn1420-9136en
dc.contributor.authorBizzarri, A.en
dc.contributor.authorCrupi, P.en
dc.contributor.departmentIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italiaen
dc.contributor.departmentUniversità degli Studi di Bari " Aldo Moro "en
item.openairetypearticle-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.grantfulltextrestricted-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.fulltextWith Fulltext-
crisitem.author.deptIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia-
crisitem.author.deptUniversità degli Studi di Bari " Aldo Moro "-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0001-8313-4124-
crisitem.author.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
crisitem.classification.parent04. Solid Earth-
crisitem.department.parentorgIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia-
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