Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9047| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.authorall | Hiemer, S.; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Woessner, J.; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Basili, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Danciu, L.; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Giardini, D.; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Wiemer, S.; Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2014-07-09T09:32:05Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2014-07-09T09:32:05Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2014-08 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/9047 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330 | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.publisher.name | Wiley-Blackwell | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Journal International | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | /198 (2014) | en |
| dc.subject | Probabilistic forecasting | en |
| dc.subject | Statistical seismology | en |
| dc.subject | Europe | en |
| dc.title | A smoothed stochastic earthquake rate model considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe | en |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1159-1172 | en |
| dc.identifier.URL | http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/198/2/1157.short | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1093/gji/ggu186 | en |
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Likelihood-Based Tests for Evaluating Space-Rate-Magnitude Earthquake Forecasts, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(3), 1184–1195. Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling, P. & Jordan, T.H., 2010b. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurr. Comput.: Pract. Exper., 22(12), 1836–1847. Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M.J., Gerstenberger, M.C., Rhoades, D.a. & Jordan, T.H., 2013. Regional earthquake likelihood models I: first-order results, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 103(2A), 787–798. | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 2T. Tettonica attiva | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio | en |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
| dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
| dc.relation.issn | 0956-540X | en |
| dc.relation.eissn | 1365-246X | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Hiemer, S. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Woessner, J. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Basili, R. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Danciu, L. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Giardini, D. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Wiemer, S. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | en |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Swiss Seismological Service, ETH Zurich, Institute of Geophysics, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | ETH, Zurich,Switzerland | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | ETH Zurich, Switzerland | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-1213-0828 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-4086-8755 | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
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| 2014_Hiemer_etal_GJI.pdf | Main published article | 7.03 MB | Adobe PDF |
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