Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8962
AuthorsD'Agostino, N. 
TitleComplete seismic release of tectonic strain and earthquake recurrence in the Apennines (Italy)
Issue Date27-Feb-2014
Series/Report no./41 (2014)
DOI10.1002/2014GL059230
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/8962
KeywordsCrustal deformation
Earthquakes
GPS
Apennines
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations 
AbstractHere I compare estimates of tectonic strain rates from dense Global Positioning System measurements with the seismicity released in the last ~500 years in the Apennines (Italy). The rates of seismic moment accumulation from geodesy and of historical seismic release by earthquakes agree within the uncertainties, ruling out significant aseismic deformation. Within the considered 400 km long section of the Apennines, this balance yields an average recurrence interval of 30–75 years for MW≥6.5 events without requiring a future earthquake larger than those observed historically (MW~7). A minimum estimate of unreleased strain allows MW≥6.5 and MW≥6.9 events to be released in ~35% and ~10% of the central-southern Apennines, respectively. The definition of the seismic potential for smaller events is more uncertain, and their occurrence remains a significant threat throughout the Apennines.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

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