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Probabilistic modeling of future volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
4V. Vulcani e ambiente
3IT. Calcolo scientifico e sistemi informatici
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/118(2013)
ISSN
0148-0227
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Pages (printed)
1925-1935
Issued date
May 8, 2013
Alternative Location
Subjects
Abstract
The statistical analysis of volcanic activity at Mt Etna was conducted with the twofold
aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and
(2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The
spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial
locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness
and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial
and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a
nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating
the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we
calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced
different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and
50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing
and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the
persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive
events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a
general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and
particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
aim of (1) constructing a probability map for vent opening of future flank eruptions and
(2) forecasting the expected number of eruptive events at the summit craters. The
spatiotemporal map of new vent opening at Etna volcano is based on the analysis of spatial
locations and frequency of flank eruptions starting from 1610. Thanks to the completeness
and accuracy of historical data over the last four centuries, we examined in detail the spatial
and temporal distribution of flank eruptions showing that effusive events follow a
nonhomogenous Poisson process with space-time varying intensities. After demonstrating
the spatial nonhomogeneity and the temporal nonstationarity of flank eruptions at Etna, we
calculated the recurrence rates (events expected per unit area per unit time) and produced
different spatiotemporal probability maps of new vent opening in the next 1, 10 and
50 years. These probabilistic maps have an immediate use in evaluating the future timing
and areas of Etna prone to volcanic hazards. Finally, the results of the analysis of the
persistent summit activity during the last 110 years indicate that the hazard rate for eruptive
events is not constant with time, differs for each summit crater of Mt Etna, highlighting a
general increase in the eruptive frequency starting from the middle of last century and
particularly from 1971, when the SE crater was formed.
Sponsors
This work was developed in the frame of
the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano
Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
the TecnoLab, the Laboratory for the Technological Advance in Volcano
Geophysics organized by INGV-CT, DIEES-UNICT, and DMI-UNICT.
References
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Etna eruption and its possible triggering mechanisms, Bull. Volcanol.,
65, 517–529, doi:10.1007/s00445-003-0280-3.
Allard, P., B. Behncke, S. D’Amico, M. Neri, and S. Gambino (2006),
Mount Etna 1993–2005: Anatomy of an evolving eruptive cycle, Earth-
Sci. Rev., 78, 85–114, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.04.002.
Alparone, S., B. Behncke, S. Giammanco, M. Neri, and E. Privitera (2005),
Paroxysmal summit activity at Mt. Etna monitored through continuous
soil radon measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16307, doi:10.1029/
2005GL023352.
Bebbington, M. S. (2007), Identifying volcanic regimes using hidden
Markov models, Geophys. J. Int., 171, 921–942, doi:10.1111/
j.1365-246X.2007.03559.x.
Behncke, B., and M. Neri (2003), Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive
behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy), Can. J. Earth Sci., 40, 1405–1411,
doi:10.1139/E03-052.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and R. Carniel (2003), An exceptional case of lava
dome growth spawning pyroclastic avalanches at Mt. Etna (Italy): The
1999 Bocca Nuova eruption, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 124/1–2,
115–128, doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00072-6.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and G. Sturiale (2004), Rapid morphological changes
at the summit of an active volcano: Reappraisal of the poorly documented
1964 eruption of Mount Etna (Italy), Geomorphology, 63/3–4, 203–218,
doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.04.004.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and A. Nagay (2005), Lava flow hazard at
Mount Etna (Italy): New data from a GIS-based study, in Kinematics and
dynamics of lava flows, edited by M. Manga and G. Ventura, Spec. Pap.
Geol. Soc. Am., 396, 189–208, doi:10.1130/0-8137-2396-5.189(13).
CAPPELLO ET AL.: PROBABILISTIC HAZARD MAPPING
1934
Behncke, B.,M. Neri, E. Pecora, and V. Zanon (2006), The exceptional activity
and growth of the Southeast Crater, Mount Etna (Italy), between 1996 and
2001, Bull. Volcanol., 69, 149–173, doi:10.1007/s00445-006-0061-x.
Bisson, M., B. Behncke, A. Fornaciai, and M. Neri (2009), Lidar-based
digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion:
The Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy), Natural Hazards, 50(2),
321–334, doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9346-7.
Bonaccorso,A.,A. Bonforte, S. Calvari, C. DelNegro,G. DiGrazia, G.Ganci,
M. Neri, A. Vicari, and E. Boschi (2011), The initial phases of the 2008–2009
Mt. Etna eruption: A multi-disciplinary approach for hazard assessment,
J. Geophys. Res., 116, B03203, doi:10.1029/2010JB007906.
Brier, G. W. (1950), Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities,
Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1–3, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:
VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2.
Calvari, S., M. Neri, and H. Pinkerton (2003), Effusion rate estimation
during the 1999 summit eruption on Mt. Etna, and growth of two distinct
lava flow fields, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 119/1–4, 107–123,
doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00308-6.
Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011a), Assessment and modeling
of lava flow hazard on Etna volcano, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 52(2),
299–308, doi:10.4430/bgta0003.
Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011b), Retrospective validation
of a lava flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano, Ann. Geophys., 54(5),
634–640, doi:10.4401/ag-5345.
Cappello, A., M. Neri, V. Acocella, G. Gallo, A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro
(2012), Spatial vent opening probability map of Mt Etna volcano
(Sicily, Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 2083–2094, doi:10.1007/s00445-
012-0647-4.
Clark, J., and F. C. Evans (1954), Distance to nearest neighbour as a measure
of spatial relationships in populations, Ecology, 35, 445–453,
doi:10.2307/1931034.
Clocchiatti, R., M. Condomines, N. Guenot, and J. C. Tanguy (2004),
Magma changes at Mount Etna: The 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions,
Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 226, 397–414, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.07.039.
Crisci, G. M., M. V. Avolio, B. Behncke, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio,
V. Lupiano, M. Neri, R. Rongo, and W. Spataro (2010), Predicting the
impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115,
B04203, doi:10.1029/2009JB006431.
Favalli, M., S. Tarquini, A. Fornaciai, and E. Boschi (2009), A new approach
to risk assessment of lava flow at Mount Etna, Geology, 37(12),
1111–1114, doi:10.1130/G30187A.
Ganci, G., A. J. L. Harris, C. Del Negro, Y. Guehenneux, A. Cappello,
P. Labazuy, S. Calvari, and M. Gouhier (2012a), A year of lava fountaining
at Etna: Volumes from SEVIRI, Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06305,
doi:10.1029/2012GL051026.
Ganci, G., A. Vicari, A. Cappello, and C. Del Negro (2012b), An emergent
strategy for volcano hazard assessment: From thermal satellite monitoring
to lava flow modeling, Remote Sens. Environ., 119, 197–207,
doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.12.021.
Giammanco, S., K. W. W. Sims, and M. Neri (2007), Measurements of
220Rn and 222Rn and CO2 emissions in soil and fumarole gases on Mt.
Etna volcano (Italy): Implications for gas transport and shallow ground
fracture, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 8, Q10001, doi:10.1029/
2007GC001644.
Greco, F., G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, R. Napoli, G. Budetta, M. Fedi, and
E. Boschi (2010), Spatiotemporal gravity variations to look deep into
the southern flank of Etna volcano, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B11411,
doi:10.1029/2009JB006835.
Guest, J. E. (1973), The summit area of Mount Etna prior to the 1971
eruption, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A, 274, 63–78.
Guest, J. E., and J. B. Murray (1979), An analysis of hazard from
Mount Etna volcano, J. Geol. Soc. London, 136, 347–354, doi:10.1144/
gsjgs.136.3.0347.
Hughes, J. W., J. E. Guest, and A. M. Duncan (1990), Changing styles of
effusive eruption on Mount Etna since AD 1600, in Magma Storage
and Ascent, edited by M. P. Ryan, pp. 385–406, John Wiley, Chichester.
Imbo, G. (1928), Sistemi eruttivi etnei, Bulletin Volcanologique, Series I, 5,
89–119.
Imbo, G. (1965), Catalog of Active Volcanoes of the World, 28, Italy,
IAVCEI, 18, 1–72.
Istituto Geografico Militare (1934), Cono Terminale del Monte Etna,
Settembre 1932, Anno X. scala 1:5000.
Lanzafame, G., M. Neri, and D. Rust (1996), Active Tectonics Affecting the
Eastern Flank of Mount Etna: Structural Interactions at Regional and
Local Scale, in Etna: Fifteen Years On, edited by P. H. Gravestock
and W. J. McGuire, pp. 25–33, Cheltenham and Gloucester College of
Higher Education, Centre for Volcanic Research, Cheltenham, U.K.
Magill, C. R., K. J. McAneney, and I. E. M. Smith (2005), Probabilistic
assessment of vent locations for the next Auckland volcanic field event,
Mathematical Geol., 37(3), 227–242, doi:10.1007/s11004-005-1556-2.
McGuire, W. J., and A. D. Pullen (1989), Location and orientation of eruptive
fissures and feeder dykes at Mount Etna; influence of gravitational
and regional tectonic stress regimes, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 38,
325–344, doi:10.1016/0377-0273(89)90046-2.
Monaco, C., and L. Tortorici (2000), Active faulting in the Calabrian arc
and eastern Sicily, J. Geodynamics, 29, 407–424, doi:10.1016/S0264-
3707(99)00052-6.
Mulargia, F., S. Tinti, and E. Boschi (1985), A statistical analysis of flank
eruptions on Etna Volcano, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 23, 263–272.
Napoli, R., G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, F. Greco, and D. Scandura (2008),
Volcanomagnetic evidence of the magmatic intrusion on 13th May
2008 Etna eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22301, doi:10.1029/
2008GL035350.
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65, 517–529, doi:10.1007/s00445-003-0280-3.
Allard, P., B. Behncke, S. D’Amico, M. Neri, and S. Gambino (2006),
Mount Etna 1993–2005: Anatomy of an evolving eruptive cycle, Earth-
Sci. Rev., 78, 85–114, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.04.002.
Alparone, S., B. Behncke, S. Giammanco, M. Neri, and E. Privitera (2005),
Paroxysmal summit activity at Mt. Etna monitored through continuous
soil radon measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16307, doi:10.1029/
2005GL023352.
Bebbington, M. S. (2007), Identifying volcanic regimes using hidden
Markov models, Geophys. J. Int., 171, 921–942, doi:10.1111/
j.1365-246X.2007.03559.x.
Behncke, B., and M. Neri (2003), Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive
behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy), Can. J. Earth Sci., 40, 1405–1411,
doi:10.1139/E03-052.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and R. Carniel (2003), An exceptional case of lava
dome growth spawning pyroclastic avalanches at Mt. Etna (Italy): The
1999 Bocca Nuova eruption, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 124/1–2,
115–128, doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00072-6.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and G. Sturiale (2004), Rapid morphological changes
at the summit of an active volcano: Reappraisal of the poorly documented
1964 eruption of Mount Etna (Italy), Geomorphology, 63/3–4, 203–218,
doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.04.004.
Behncke, B., M. Neri, and A. Nagay (2005), Lava flow hazard at
Mount Etna (Italy): New data from a GIS-based study, in Kinematics and
dynamics of lava flows, edited by M. Manga and G. Ventura, Spec. Pap.
Geol. Soc. Am., 396, 189–208, doi:10.1130/0-8137-2396-5.189(13).
CAPPELLO ET AL.: PROBABILISTIC HAZARD MAPPING
1934
Behncke, B.,M. Neri, E. Pecora, and V. Zanon (2006), The exceptional activity
and growth of the Southeast Crater, Mount Etna (Italy), between 1996 and
2001, Bull. Volcanol., 69, 149–173, doi:10.1007/s00445-006-0061-x.
Bisson, M., B. Behncke, A. Fornaciai, and M. Neri (2009), Lidar-based
digital terrain analysis of an area exposed to the risk of lava flow invasion:
The Zafferana Etnea territory, Mt. Etna (Italy), Natural Hazards, 50(2),
321–334, doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9346-7.
Bonaccorso,A.,A. Bonforte, S. Calvari, C. DelNegro,G. DiGrazia, G.Ganci,
M. Neri, A. Vicari, and E. Boschi (2011), The initial phases of the 2008–2009
Mt. Etna eruption: A multi-disciplinary approach for hazard assessment,
J. Geophys. Res., 116, B03203, doi:10.1029/2010JB007906.
Brier, G. W. (1950), Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities,
Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1–3, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:
VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2.
Calvari, S., M. Neri, and H. Pinkerton (2003), Effusion rate estimation
during the 1999 summit eruption on Mt. Etna, and growth of two distinct
lava flow fields, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 119/1–4, 107–123,
doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(02)00308-6.
Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011a), Assessment and modeling
of lava flow hazard on Etna volcano, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 52(2),
299–308, doi:10.4430/bgta0003.
Cappello, A., A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro (2011b), Retrospective validation
of a lava flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano, Ann. Geophys., 54(5),
634–640, doi:10.4401/ag-5345.
Cappello, A., M. Neri, V. Acocella, G. Gallo, A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro
(2012), Spatial vent opening probability map of Mt Etna volcano
(Sicily, Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 74, 2083–2094, doi:10.1007/s00445-
012-0647-4.
Clark, J., and F. C. Evans (1954), Distance to nearest neighbour as a measure
of spatial relationships in populations, Ecology, 35, 445–453,
doi:10.2307/1931034.
Clocchiatti, R., M. Condomines, N. Guenot, and J. C. Tanguy (2004),
Magma changes at Mount Etna: The 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions,
Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 226, 397–414, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.07.039.
Crisci, G. M., M. V. Avolio, B. Behncke, D. D’Ambrosio, S. Di Gregorio,
V. Lupiano, M. Neri, R. Rongo, and W. Spataro (2010), Predicting the
impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115,
B04203, doi:10.1029/2009JB006431.
Favalli, M., S. Tarquini, A. Fornaciai, and E. Boschi (2009), A new approach
to risk assessment of lava flow at Mount Etna, Geology, 37(12),
1111–1114, doi:10.1130/G30187A.
Ganci, G., A. J. L. Harris, C. Del Negro, Y. Guehenneux, A. Cappello,
P. Labazuy, S. Calvari, and M. Gouhier (2012a), A year of lava fountaining
at Etna: Volumes from SEVIRI, Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06305,
doi:10.1029/2012GL051026.
Ganci, G., A. Vicari, A. Cappello, and C. Del Negro (2012b), An emergent
strategy for volcano hazard assessment: From thermal satellite monitoring
to lava flow modeling, Remote Sens. Environ., 119, 197–207,
doi:10.1016/j.rse.2011.12.021.
Giammanco, S., K. W. W. Sims, and M. Neri (2007), Measurements of
220Rn and 222Rn and CO2 emissions in soil and fumarole gases on Mt.
Etna volcano (Italy): Implications for gas transport and shallow ground
fracture, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 8, Q10001, doi:10.1029/
2007GC001644.
Greco, F., G. Currenti, C. Del Negro, R. Napoli, G. Budetta, M. Fedi, and
E. Boschi (2010), Spatiotemporal gravity variations to look deep into
the southern flank of Etna volcano, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B11411,
doi:10.1029/2009JB006835.
Guest, J. E. (1973), The summit area of Mount Etna prior to the 1971
eruption, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, A, 274, 63–78.
Guest, J. E., and J. B. Murray (1979), An analysis of hazard from
Mount Etna volcano, J. Geol. Soc. London, 136, 347–354, doi:10.1144/
gsjgs.136.3.0347.
Hughes, J. W., J. E. Guest, and A. M. Duncan (1990), Changing styles of
effusive eruption on Mount Etna since AD 1600, in Magma Storage
and Ascent, edited by M. P. Ryan, pp. 385–406, John Wiley, Chichester.
Imbo, G. (1928), Sistemi eruttivi etnei, Bulletin Volcanologique, Series I, 5,
89–119.
Imbo, G. (1965), Catalog of Active Volcanoes of the World, 28, Italy,
IAVCEI, 18, 1–72.
Istituto Geografico Militare (1934), Cono Terminale del Monte Etna,
Settembre 1932, Anno X. scala 1:5000.
Lanzafame, G., M. Neri, and D. Rust (1996), Active Tectonics Affecting the
Eastern Flank of Mount Etna: Structural Interactions at Regional and
Local Scale, in Etna: Fifteen Years On, edited by P. H. Gravestock
and W. J. McGuire, pp. 25–33, Cheltenham and Gloucester College of
Higher Education, Centre for Volcanic Research, Cheltenham, U.K.
Magill, C. R., K. J. McAneney, and I. E. M. Smith (2005), Probabilistic
assessment of vent locations for the next Auckland volcanic field event,
Mathematical Geol., 37(3), 227–242, doi:10.1007/s11004-005-1556-2.
McGuire, W. J., and A. D. Pullen (1989), Location and orientation of eruptive
fissures and feeder dykes at Mount Etna; influence of gravitational
and regional tectonic stress regimes, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 38,
325–344, doi:10.1016/0377-0273(89)90046-2.
Monaco, C., and L. Tortorici (2000), Active faulting in the Calabrian arc
and eastern Sicily, J. Geodynamics, 29, 407–424, doi:10.1016/S0264-
3707(99)00052-6.
Mulargia, F., S. Tinti, and E. Boschi (1985), A statistical analysis of flank
eruptions on Etna Volcano, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 23, 263–272.
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