Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8856
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Pietrella, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-12-20T12:52:27Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2013-12-20T12:52:27Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2013-10-07 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8856 | en |
dc.description.abstract | Twelve empirical local models have been developed for the long-term prediction of the ionospheric characteristic M3000F2, and then used as starting point for the development of a short-term forecasting empirical regional model of M3000F2 under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. Under the assumption that the monthly median measurements of M3000F2 are linearly correlated to the solar activity, a set of regression coefficients were calculated over 12 months and 24 h for each of 12 ionospheric observatories located in the European area, and then used for the long-term prediction of M3000F2 at each station under consideration. Based on the 12 long-term prediction empirical local models of M3000F2, an empirical regional model for the prediction of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe(indicated as RM_M3000F2) was developed. Thanks to the IFELM_foF2 models, which are able to provide short-term forecasts of the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2STF) up to three hours in advance, it was possible to considerer the Brudley–Dudeney algorithm as a function of foF2STF to correct RM_M3000F2 and thus obtain an empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours in advance under not quiet geomagnetic conditions. From the long-term predictions of M3000F2 provided by the IRI model, an empirical regional model for the forecast of the monthly median field of M3000F2 over Europe (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2) was derived. IRI_RM_M3000F2 predictions were modified with the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor, and another empirical regional model for the short-term forecasting of M3000F2 (indicated as IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD) up to three hours ahead under not quiet geomagnetic conditions was obtained. The main results achieved comparing the performance of RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, IRI_RM_M3000F2, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD are (1) in the case of moderate geomagnetic activity, the Bradley–Dudeney correction factor does not improve significantly the predictions; (2) under disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney formula improves the predictions of RM_M3000F2 in the entire European area; (3) in the case of very disturbed geomagnetic conditions, the Bradley–Dudeney algorithm is very effective in improving the performance of IRI_RM_M3000F2; (4) under moderate geomagnetic conditions, the long-term prediction maps of M3000F2 generated by RM_M3000F2 can be considered as short-term forecasting maps providing very satisfactory results because quiet geomagnetic conditions are not so diverse from moderate geomagnetic conditions;(5) the forecasting maps originated by RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD show some regions where the forecasts are not satisfactory, but also wide sectors where the M3000F2 forecasts quite faithfully match the M3000F2 observations, and therefore RM_M3000F2, RM_M3000F2_BD, and IRI_RM_M3000F2_BD could be exploited to produce short-term forecasting maps of M3000F2 over Europe up to 3 h in advance. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Annales Geophysicae | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /31(2013) | en |
dc.subject | modelling and forecasting | en |
dc.subject | ionospheric disturbances; | en |
dc.subject | ionosphere–magnetosphere interactions | en |
dc.title | Empirical regional models for the short-term forecast of M3000F2 during not quiet geomagnetic conditions over Europe | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 1653–1671 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5194/angeo-31-1653-2013 | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3.9. Fisica della magnetosfera, ionosfera e meteorologia spaziale | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pietrella, M. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-9069-4090 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 01. Atmosphere | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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published.pdf | paper published | 1.26 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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