Intermittent Sea Level Acceleration

Abstract

Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea{level acceleration for the last 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, con firm the existence of a global sea level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0:01 mm/yr2. However, di fferently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.