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Authors: Basili, R.*
Tiberti, M. M.*
Kastelic, V.*
Romano, F.*
Piatanesi, A.*
Selva, J.*
Lorito, S.*
Title: Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies
Title of journal: Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Series/Report no.: 3/14(2013)
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
Issue Date: 19-Apr-2013
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013
Keywords: active fault
tsunamigenic source
epistemic uncertainty
tectonic moment rate
Abstract: We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (Mw=7) and subduction earthquakes (Mw=7 and Mw=8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by Mw=8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by Mw=7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results.
Appears in Collections:04.04.04. Marine geology
04.07.06. Subduction related processes
04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
04.04.09. Structural geology
04.07.07. Tectonics
04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
Papers Published / Papers in press

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