Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8337| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.authorall | Parsons, T.; U.S. Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Rd. Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Console, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Falcone, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Murru, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Yamashina, K.; Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), University of Tokyo, Yayoi 1-1-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113–0032, Japan | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-22T10:52:59Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2012-10-22T10:52:59Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2012-09 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8337 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | Earthquake forecasts are usually underinformed, and can be plagued by uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model, and parameter values used in that model. In this paper, we explore the application of two different models to the same seismogenic area. The first is a renewal model based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis that uses historical/palaeoseismic recurrence times, and fixed rupture geometries. The hazard rate is modified by the Coulomb static stress change caused by nearby earthquakes that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake. The second model is a very simple earthquake simulator based on plate-motion, or fault-slip rates and adoption of a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distribution. This information is commonly available even if historical and palaeoseismic recurrence data are lacking. The intention is to develop and assess a simulator that has a very limited parameter set that could be used to calculate earthquake rates in settings that are not as rich with observations of large-earthquake recurrence behaviour as the Nankai trough. We find that the use of convergence rate as a primary constraint allows the simulator to replicate much of the spatial distribution of observed segmented rupture rates along the Nankai, Tonankai and Tokai subduction zones. Although we note rate differences between the two forecast methods in the Tokai zone, we also see enough similarities between simulations and observations to suggest that very simple earthquake rupture simulations based on empirical data and fundamental earthquake laws could be useful forecast tools in information-poor settings. | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.publisher.name | Wiley-Blackwell | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Geophysical Journal International | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | 3 / 190 (2012) | en |
| dc.subject | Time series analysis | en |
| dc.subject | Spatial analysis | en |
| dc.subject | Probability distributions | en |
| dc.subject | Seismic cycle | en |
| dc.subject | Earthquake interaction | en |
| dc.subject | forecasting, and prediction | en |
| dc.subject | Statistical seismology. | en |
| dc.title | Comparison of characteristic and Gutenberg–Richter models for time-dependentM ≥ 7.9 earthquake probability in the Nankai-Tokai subduction zone, Japan | en |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1673-1688 | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05595.x | en |
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Correlating variations of b values and crustal deformation during the 1990’s may have pinpointed the rupture initiation of the Mw = 7.4 Izmit earthquake of 1999 August 17, Geophys. J. Int., 148, 139–152. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 1995. Seismic hazards in Southern California: probable earthquakes, 1994 to 2024, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 85, 379–439. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 2003. Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region: 2002 to 2031. Open-File Rep, U.S. Geol. Surv., 03–214. Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 2008. The uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2). Open-File Rep, U.S. Geol. Surv., 07–1437. Wyss, M., Sammis, C.G., Nadeau, R.M. &Weimer, S., 2004. Fractal dimension and b-value on creeping and locked patches of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 94, 410–421. | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti | en |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
| dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
| dc.relation.issn | 0956-540X | en |
| dc.relation.eissn | 1365-246X | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Parsons, T. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Console, R. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Falcone, G. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Murru, M. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Yamashina, K. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | U.S. Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Rd. Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), University of Tokyo, Yayoi 1-1-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113–0032, Japan | en |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | U.S. Geological Survey, MS-999, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma2, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), University of Tokyo, Yayoi 1-1-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113–0032, Japan | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0582-4338 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-2554-4421 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-7385-394X | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
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