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Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
2 / 191 (2012)
ISSN
0956-540X
Electronic ISSN
1365-246X
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
Pages (printed)
653-658
Issued date
November 2012
Abstract
Although no deterministic and reliable earthquake precursor is known to date, we are steadily gaining insight into probabilistic forecasting that draws on space–time characteristics of earthquake
clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next
24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at
least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement
to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake.
Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
clustering. Clustering-based models aiming to forecast earthquakes within the next
24 hours are under test in the global project ‘Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability’ (CSEP). The 2011 March 11 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan provides a unique opportunity to test the existing 1-day CSEP models against its unprecedentedly active aftershock sequence. The original CSEP experiment performs tests after the catalogue is finalized to avoid bias due to poor data quality. However, this study differs from this tradition and uses the preliminary catalogue revised and updated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is often incomplete but is immediately available. This study is intended as a first step towards operability-oriented earthquake forecasting in Japan. Encouragingly, at
least one model passed the test in most combinations of the target day and the testing method, although the models could not take account of the megaquake in advance and the catalogue used for forecast generation was incomplete. However, it can also be seen that all models have only limited forecasting power for the period immediately after the quake. Our conclusion does not change when the preliminary JMAcatalogue is replaced by the finalized one, implying that the models perform stably over the catalogue replacement and are applicable to operational earthquake forecasting. However, we emphasize the need of further research on model improvement
to assure the reliability of forecasts for the days immediately after the main quake.
Seismicity is expected to remain high in all parts of Japan over the coming years. Our results present a way to answer the urgent need to promote research on time-dependent earthquake predictability to prepare for subsequent large earthquakes in the near future in Japan.
References
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its application to earthquake clustering, J. geophys. Res., 99, 2601–2618.
Falcone, G., Console, R. & Murru, M., 2010. Short-term and long-term
earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Ann.
Geophys., 53(3), 41–50.
Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jones, L.M. & Reasenberg, P.A., 2005.
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California, Nature, 435,
328–331.
Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.H., 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California,
Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188.
Hirose, F., Miyaoka, K., Hayashimoto, N., Yamazaki, T. & Nakamura, M.,
2011. Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
(Mw 9.0)—seismicity: foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and induced
activity—, Earth Planets Space, 63, 513–518.
Jordan, T.H., 2006. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seismol. Res.
Lett., 77(1), 3–6.
Jordan, T.H. et al., 2011. Implications of recent events for CSEP testing of
earthquake forecasts, in 2011 Annual Meeting of Seismological Society
of America, Memphis, TN, 2011 April 13–15, 43pp.
Lombardi, A.M. & Marzocchi, W., 2010. The assumption of Poisson
seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. seism. Soc.
Am., 100(5A), 2293–2300.
Marzocchi, W. & Lombardi, A.M., 2009. Real-time forecasting following
a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302,
doi:10.1029/2009GL040233.
Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N. & Jordan, T.H., 2011. Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets
Space, 63(3), 159–169.
Ogata, Y., 1999. Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: a
review, Pure appl. Geophys., 155(2–4), 471–507.
Ogata,Y., 2011. Significant improvements of the space-time ETASmodel for
forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth Planets Space, 63(3),
217–229.
Ogata,Y., 2012. Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity and triggered activity
near Matsumoto, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, 87, 546–553 (in Japanese with English figure captions).
Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. & Zhuang, J., 2012. Comprehensive
and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in number,
time, space and magnitude, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., submitted.
Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A.,
Zechar, J.D.&Imoto,M., 2011. Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting
models, Acta Geophys., 59, 728–747.
Ruina, A., 1983. Slip instability and state variable friction laws, J. geophys.
Res., 88(B12), 10 359–10 370.
Schorlemmer, D. & Gerstenberger, M.C., 2007. RELM Testing Center,
Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 30–36.
Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D.D. &
Rhoades, D.A., 2007. Earthquake likelihood model Testing, Seism. Res.
Lett., 78(1), 17–29.
Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D., Werner, M.J., Field, E.H., Jackson, D.D.,
Jordan, T.H. & the RELM Working Group, 2010. First results of the Regional
Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment, Pure appl. Geophys.,
167(8–9), 859–876.
Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N., Schorlemmer, D., Euchner, F., Nanjo, K.Z. &
Jordan, T.H., 2012. CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake
forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets Space, in press.
Werner, M.J. & Sornette, D., 2008. Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic
rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments, J. geophys. Res.,
113, JB08302, doi:10.1029/2007JB005427.
Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. High
resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull.
seism. Soc. Am., 101(4), 1630–1648.
Woessner, J. et al., 2011. A retrospective comparative forecast test
on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. geophys. Res., 116, B05305,
doi:10.1029/2010JB007846.
Zechar, J.D., Gerstenberger, M.C. & Rhoades, D.A., 2010a. Likelihoodbased
tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts,
Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(3), 1184–1195.
Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling,
P.J.&Jordan, T.H., 2010b. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency
and Computation: Practice and Experience, 22(12), 1836–1847,
doi:10.1002/cpe.1519.
Zhuang, J., 2011. Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated
by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, 63(3), 207–216.
its application to earthquake clustering, J. geophys. Res., 99, 2601–2618.
Falcone, G., Console, R. & Murru, M., 2010. Short-term and long-term
earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Ann.
Geophys., 53(3), 41–50.
Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jones, L.M. & Reasenberg, P.A., 2005.
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California, Nature, 435,
328–331.
Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.H., 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California,
Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 34, 185–188.
Hirose, F., Miyaoka, K., Hayashimoto, N., Yamazaki, T. & Nakamura, M.,
2011. Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake
(Mw 9.0)—seismicity: foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and induced
activity—, Earth Planets Space, 63, 513–518.
Jordan, T.H., 2006. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seismol. Res.
Lett., 77(1), 3–6.
Jordan, T.H. et al., 2011. Implications of recent events for CSEP testing of
earthquake forecasts, in 2011 Annual Meeting of Seismological Society
of America, Memphis, TN, 2011 April 13–15, 43pp.
Lombardi, A.M. & Marzocchi, W., 2010. The assumption of Poisson
seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. seism. Soc.
Am., 100(5A), 2293–2300.
Marzocchi, W. & Lombardi, A.M., 2009. Real-time forecasting following
a damaging earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21302,
doi:10.1029/2009GL040233.
Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N. & Jordan, T.H., 2011. Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets
Space, 63(3), 159–169.
Ogata, Y., 1999. Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: a
review, Pure appl. Geophys., 155(2–4), 471–507.
Ogata,Y., 2011. Significant improvements of the space-time ETASmodel for
forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth Planets Space, 63(3),
217–229.
Ogata,Y., 2012. Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity and triggered activity
near Matsumoto, Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, 87, 546–553 (in Japanese with English figure captions).
Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. & Zhuang, J., 2012. Comprehensive
and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in number,
time, space and magnitude, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., submitted.
Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A.,
Zechar, J.D.&Imoto,M., 2011. Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting
models, Acta Geophys., 59, 728–747.
Ruina, A., 1983. Slip instability and state variable friction laws, J. geophys.
Res., 88(B12), 10 359–10 370.
Schorlemmer, D. & Gerstenberger, M.C., 2007. RELM Testing Center,
Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 30–36.
Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D.D. &
Rhoades, D.A., 2007. Earthquake likelihood model Testing, Seism. Res.
Lett., 78(1), 17–29.
Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D., Werner, M.J., Field, E.H., Jackson, D.D.,
Jordan, T.H. & the RELM Working Group, 2010. First results of the Regional
Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment, Pure appl. Geophys.,
167(8–9), 859–876.
Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N., Schorlemmer, D., Euchner, F., Nanjo, K.Z. &
Jordan, T.H., 2012. CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake
forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth Planets Space, in press.
Werner, M.J. & Sornette, D., 2008. Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic
rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments, J. geophys. Res.,
113, JB08302, doi:10.1029/2007JB005427.
Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. High
resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull.
seism. Soc. Am., 101(4), 1630–1648.
Woessner, J. et al., 2011. A retrospective comparative forecast test
on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. geophys. Res., 116, B05305,
doi:10.1029/2010JB007846.
Zechar, J.D., Gerstenberger, M.C. & Rhoades, D.A., 2010a. Likelihoodbased
tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts,
Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(3), 1184–1195.
Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling,
P.J.&Jordan, T.H., 2010b. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency
and Computation: Practice and Experience, 22(12), 1836–1847,
doi:10.1002/cpe.1519.
Zhuang, J., 2011. Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated
by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, 63(3), 207–216.
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