Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8200| DC Field | Value | Language |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Amato, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Akinci, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Chiarabba, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Lombardi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Pantosti, D.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.authorall | Boschi, E.; U. Bologna | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-15T09:09:05Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2012-10-15T09:09:05Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8200 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | The recent Mw 6.3 destructive L’Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model for Mw ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models, based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model. | en |
| dc.language.iso | English | en |
| dc.publisher.name | Seismological Society of America | en |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | 3/102(2012) | en |
| dc.subject | Earthquake occurrence | en |
| dc.subject | time-dependent and independent earthquake occurrence models | en |
| dc.subject | csep testing | en |
| dc.title | A Ten-Year Earthquake Occurrence Model for Italy | en |
| dc.type | article | en |
| dc.description.status | Published | en |
| dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
| dc.description.pagenumber | 1195-1213 | en |
| dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1785/0120110164 | en |
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New, improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools released, Eos Trans. AGU 79, 579. Woessner, J., S. Hainzl, W. Marzocchi, M. J. Werner, A. M. Lombardi, F. Catalli, B. Enescu, M. Cocco, M. C. Gerstenberger, and S. Wiemer (2011). A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence, J. Geophys. Res. 116, no. B05305, doi 10.1029/ 2010JB007846. Woo, G. (2010). Operational earthquake forecasting and risk management, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, 778–782. Zechar, J. D., D. Schorlemmer, M. Liukis, J. Yu, F. Euchner, P. J. Maechling, and T. H. Jordan (2010). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency Comput. Pract. Ex. 22, 1836–1847, doi 10.1002/cpe.1519. Zechar, J. D., M. C. Gerstenberger, and D. A. Rhoades (2010). Likelihoodbased tests for evaluating space–rate–magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 100, 1184–1195. | en |
| dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale | en |
| dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
| dc.description.fulltext | restricted | en |
| dc.relation.issn | 0037-1106 | en |
| dc.relation.eissn | 1943-3573 | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Amato, A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Akinci, A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Chiarabba, A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Lombardi, A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Pantosti, D. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Boschi, E. | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
| dc.contributor.department | U. Bologna | en |
| item.openairetype | article | - |
| item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
| item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
| item.grantfulltext | restricted | - |
| item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
| item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9521-6570 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-8073-3420 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8111-3466 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-8326-7135 | - |
| crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7308-9104 | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
| Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press | |
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| Marzocchi_etal_BSSA2012.pdf | 1.34 MB | Adobe PDF |
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