Earth-prints repository, logo   DSpace

About DSpace Software
|earth-prints home page | roma library | bologna library | catania library | milano library | napoli library | palermo library
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

Authors: Brancato, A.*
Gresta, S.*
Sandri, L.*
Selva, J.*
Marzocchi, W.*
Alparone, S.*
Andronico, D.*
Bonforte, A.*
Caltabiano, T.*
Cocina, O.*
Corsaro, R. A.*
Cristofolini, R.*
Di Grazia, G.*
Distefano, G.*
Ferlito, C.*
Gambino, S.*
Giammanco, S.*
Greco, F.*
Napoli, R.*
Tusa, G.*
Viccaro, M.*
Title: Quantifying probabilities of eruption at a well-monitored active volcano: an application to Mt.Etna (Sicily, Italy),
Title of journal: Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata
Series/Report no.: 1/53(2012)
Publisher: Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale-OGS
Issue Date: Mar-2012
DOI: 10.4430/bgta0040
Keywords: Mt. Etna
eruption forecasting
Bayesian event tree
Abstract: At active volcanoes, distinct eruptions are preceded by complex and different precursory patterns; in addition, there are precursory signals that do not necessarily lead to an eruption. The main purpose of this paper is to present an unprecedented application of the recently developed code named BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) to the quantitative estimate of the eruptive hazard at Mt. Etna volcano. We tested the model for the case history of the July-August 2001 flank eruption. Anomalies in geophysical, geochemical and volcanological monitoring parameters were observed more than a month in advance of the effective onset of the eruption. As a consequence, eruption probabilities larger than 90% were estimated. An important feature of the application of BET_EF to Mt. Etna was the probabilistic estimate of opening vent locations. The methodology allowed a clear identification of assumptions and the monitoring of parameter thresholds and provided rational means for their revision if new data or information are incoming.
Appears in Collections:04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:

File SizeFormatVisibility
Brancato_etal_2012.pdf2.71 MBAdobe PDFonly authorized users View/Open

This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License
Creative Commons

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Share this record




Stumble it!



Valid XHTML 1.0! ICT Support, development & maintenance are provided by CINECA. Powered on DSpace Software. CINECA