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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8079

Authors: Cappello, A.*
Neri, M.*
Acocella, V.*
Gallo, G.*
Vicari, A.*
Del Negro, C.*
Title: Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)
Title of journal: Bulletin of volcanology
Series/Report no.: /74 (2012)
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Issue Date: 2-Sep-2012
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4
URL: http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4
Keywords: Flank eruption
Dike
Volcano structure
Susceptibility map
Spatial clustering
Back analysis
Abstract: We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press
04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
04.04.09. Structural geology
04.07.99. General or miscellaneous
04.07.07. Tectonics
04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
04.08.08. Volcanic risk
05.01.99. General or miscellaneous
05.01.04. Statistical analysis
05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
05.08.99. General or miscellaneous

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