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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/8079
Authors: | Cappello, A.* Neri, M.* Acocella, V.* Gallo, G.* Vicari, A.* Del Negro, C.* |
Title: | Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) | Journal: | Bulletin of volcanology | Series/Report no.: | /74 (2012) | Publisher: | Springer Berlin Heidelberg | Issue Date: | 2-Sep-2012 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4 | URL: | http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4 | Keywords: | Flank eruption Dike Volcano structure Susceptibility map Spatial clustering Back analysis |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous |
Abstract: | We produce a spatial probability map of vent opening (susceptibility map) at Etna, using a statistical analysis of structural features of flank eruptions of the last 2 ky. We exploit a detailed knowledge of the volcano structures, including the modalities of shallow magma transfer deriving from dike and dike-fed fissure eruptions analysis on historical eruptions. Assuming the location of future vents will have the same causal factors as the past eruptions, we converted the geological and structural data in distinct and weighted probability density functions, which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to obtain the susceptibility map. The highest probability of new eruptive vents opening falls within a N-S aligned area passing through the Summit Craters down to about 2,000 ma.s.l. on the southern flank. Other zones of high probability follow the North-East, East-North-East, West, and South Rifts, the latter reaching low altitudes (∼400 m). Less susceptible areas are found around the faults cutting the upper portions of Etna, including the western portion of the Pernicana fault and the northern extent of the Ragalna fault. This structuralbased susceptibility map is a crucial step in forecasting lava flow hazards at Etna, providing a support tool for decision makers. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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