Towards assessing the Adriatic Sea coastal vulnerability to regional climate change scenarios: preliminary results

Abstract

Preliminary results from numerical climate simulations of the Adriatic sea at high resolution (1/25°), performed during two time-slice integrations, are presented for the period 1960-90 and the 21st century (2070-2100), according to the “A1b” scenario defined by IPCC. This aims at addressing the feasibility of downscaling procedure in a regional basin, resolving features that are generally still not included when using global models and gaining useful indications on climate-change induced impacts on the wave climate and ocean circulation. For this purpose, a fully coupled version of the ROMS-SWAN model has been implemented, using interpolated meteorological forcings from the SINTA Project (SImulations of climate chaNge in the mediTerranean Area, a joint scientific cooperation of CMCC-INGV-Univ. of Belgrade). Within the Impacts on Soil and Water Division (ISC) of the CMCC, the numerical downscaling approach is integrated in a GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS) aimed at the integrated analysis of climate change impacts and risks on coastal zones at the regional, aimed at guiding decision-makers in the definition of adaptation strategies. Despite further experiments are needed to reach definitive results, the outcomes indicate the feasibility of the numerical downscaling approach; nevertheless, they also highlight uncertainties intrinsic to this approach that may be leading, at least at the present state of the art, to results of difficult interpretation.