Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and geodynamics: a 'box for thinking and working'

Abstract

After reviewing the main results present in the literature on geodynamic toward seismic and volcanic activity and risks, the paper present a causative global model of these phenomena and delineates a model of calculus for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions prediction. The model involves a mechanical schematization of the entire globe, make use of Somigliana’s identity and gives results in terms of probabilities given the PDF of mechanical parameters like Lamè’m on fault planes and viscosity of the magmas. The results then can be updated with short and long term precursors.