Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7807
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.authorall | Pinardi, N. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Bonazzi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Dobricic, S. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Milliff, R. F. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Wikle, C. K. | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Berliner, L. M. | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-02-22T14:30:50Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2012-02-22T14:30:50Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7807 | en |
dc.description.abstract | This article analyzes the ocean forecast response to surface vector wind (SVW) distributions generated by a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) developed in Part I of this series. A new method for ocean ensemble forecasting (OEF), the socalled BHM-SVW-OEF, is described. BHM-SVW realizations are used to produce and force perturbations in the ocean state during 14 day analysis and 10 day forecast cycles of the Mediterranean Forecast System (MFS). The BHM-SVW-OEF ocean response spread is amplified at the mesoscales and in the pycnocline of the eddy field. The new method is compared with an ensemble response forced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EEPS) surface winds, and with an ensemble forecast started from perturbed initial conditions derived froman ad hoc thermocline intensified random perturbation (TIRP) method. The EEPS-OEF shows spread on basin scales while the TIRP-OEF response is mesoscale-intensified as in the BHM-SVW-OEF response. TIRP-OEF perturbations fill more of the MFS domain, while the BHM-SVW-OEF perturbations are more location-specific, concentrating ensemble spread at the sites where the ocean-model response to uncertainty in the surface wind forcing is largest. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Wiley-Blackwell | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /137 (2011) | en |
dc.subject | forecast uncertainty | en |
dc.title | Ocean ensemble forecasting. Part II: Mediterranean Forecast System response | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 879–893 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/qj.816 | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | embargoed_20140501 | en |
dc.relation.issn | 0035-9009 | en |
dc.relation.eissn | 1477-870X | en |
dc.contributor.author | Pinardi, N. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Bonazzi, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Dobricic, S. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Milliff, R. F. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Wikle, C. K. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Berliner, L. M. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-4765-0775 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 03. Hydrosphere | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
10
13
checked on Feb 10, 2021
Page view(s) 20
294
checked on Apr 24, 2024
Download(s) 50
118
checked on Apr 24, 2024