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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7473

Authors: Brancato, A.*
Gresta, S.*
Alparone, S.*
Andronico, D.*
Bonforte, A.*
Caltabiano, T.*
Cocina, O.*
Corsaro, R. A.*
Cristofolini, R.*
Di Grazia, G.*
Distefano, G.*
Ferlito, C.*
Gambino, S.*
Giammanco, S.*
Greco, F.*
Napoli, R.*
Sandri, L.*
Selva, J.*
Tusa, G.*
Viccaro, M.
Title: Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)
Title of journal: Annals of Geophysics
Series/Report no.: 5/54(2011)
Issue Date: 2011
DOI: 10.4401/ag-5346
Keywords: Volcano monitoring
Statistical analysis
Abstract: Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ‘precursor’ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated.
Appears in Collections:04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
Papers Published / Papers in press

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