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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7473
Authors: | Brancato, A.* Gresta, S.* Alparone, S.* Andronico, D.* Bonforte, A.* Caltabiano, T.* Cocina, O.* Corsaro, R. A.* Cristofolini, R.* Di Grazia, G.* Distefano, G.* Ferlito, C.* Gambino, S.* Giammanco, S.* Greco, F.* Napoli, R.* Sandri, L.* Selva, J.* Tusa, G.* Viccaro, M.* |
Title: | Application of BET_EF to Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005) | Journal: | Annals of Geophysics | Series/Report no.: | 5/54(2011) | Issue Date: | 2011 | DOI: | 10.4401/ag-5346 | Keywords: | Volcano monitoring Statistical analysis |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring | Abstract: | Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the space-time distribution of the volcanic activity of Mount Etna from 2001-2005. First, a reliable monitoring dataset was set up after some sessions to elicit geophysical, volcanological and geochemical ‘precursor’ parameters. A constant unrest probability of 100%, with a magma involvement usually greater than 95%, was computed throughout the time period analyzed. Eruption probabilities higher than 90% were estimated a few days before the onsets of the 2001 and 2002-2003 flank eruptions. Values slightly higher than 75% were observed during the lava fountaining period in June-July 2001. However, the probabilities flattened to around 30% for the 2004-2005 flank eruption. With suitable data, a good depiction of the actual location of the eruptive scenario for the 2001 and 2002-2003 events was provided. Conversely, the size of the eruptions was not indicated. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Brancato et al 2011 AnnofGeop.pdf | 5.16 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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