Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7293
AuthorsBebbington, M.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
TitleStochastic models for earthquake triggering of volcanic eruptions
Issue Date2011
Series/Report no./116 (2011)
DOI10.1029/2010JB008114
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/7293
Keywordsearthquake eruption interaction
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
AbstractMany accounts, anecdotal and statistical, have noted a causal effect on volcanic eruptions from large, not too distant, earthquakes. Physical mechanisms have been proposed that explain how small static stress changes, or larger transient dynamic stress changes, can have observable effects on a volcano. While only ∼0.4% of eruptions appear to be directly triggered within a few days of an earthquake, these physical mechanisms also imply the possibility of delayed triggering. In the few regional studies conducted, data issues (selection bias and scarcity, inhomogeneity, and cleaning of data) have tended to obscure any clear signal. Using a perturbation technique, we first show that the Indonesian volcanic region possesses no statistically significant coupling for the region as a whole. We then augment a number of point process models for eruption onsets by a time‐, distance‐, and earthquake magnitude–dependent triggering term and apply this to the individual volcanoes. This method weighs both positive and negative (i.e., absence of eruptions following an earthquake) evidence of triggering. Of 35 volcanoes with at least three eruptions in the study region, seven (Marapi, Talang, Krakatau, Slamet, Ebulobo, Lewotobi, and Ruang) show statistical evidence of triggering over varying temporal and spatial scales, but only after the internal state of the volcano is accounted for. This confirms that triggering is fundamentally a property of the internal magma plumbing of the volcano in question and that any earthquake can potentially “advance the clock” toward a future eruption. This is further supported by the absence of any dependence on triggering of the eruption size
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
JGR_bebbington_marzocchi_11.pdf756.22 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record

Page view(s)

48
Last Week
0
Last month
checked on Jun 23, 2017

Download(s)

19
checked on Jun 23, 2017

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric