Earth-prints repository, logo   DSpace

About DSpace Software
|earth-prints home page | roma library | bologna library | catania library | milano library | napoli library | palermo library
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7290

Authors: Marzocchi, W.*
Zechar, J. D.*
Title: Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model
Title of journal: Seismological Research Letters
Series/Report no.: /82 (2011)
Publisher: Seismological Society of America
Issue Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1785/gssrl.82.3.442
Keywords: model selection
Abstract: We consider the general problem of constructing or selecting the “best” earthquake forecast/prediction model. While many researchers have presented technical methods for solving this problem, the practical and philosophical dimensions are scarcely treated in the scientific literature, and we wish to emphasize these aspects here. Of particular interest are the marked differ- ences between approaches used to build long-term earthquake rupture forecasts and those used to conduct systematic earth- quake predictability experiments. Our aim is to clarify the dif- ferent approaches, and we suggest that these differences, while perhaps not intuitive, are understandable and appropriate for their specific goals. We note that what constitutes the “best” model is not uniquely defined, and the definition often depends on the needs and goals of the model’s consumer.
Appears in Collections:04.06.11. Seismic risk
Papers Published / Papers in press

Files in This Item:

File SizeFormatVisibility
SRL_marzocchi_zechar_11.pdf795.61 kBAdobe PDFView/Open


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.


Share this record
Del.icio.us

Citeulike

Connotea

Facebook

Stumble it!

reddit


 

Valid XHTML 1.0! ICT Support, development & maintenance are provided by CINECA. Powered on DSpace Software. CINECA