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Authors: Vicari, A.*
Ganci, G.*
Behncke, B.*
Cappello, A.*
Neri, M.*
Del Negro, C.*
Title: Near‐real‐time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption
Title of journal: Geophysical Researh Letters
Series/Report no.: /38 (2011)
Publisher: American Geophysical Union.
Issue Date: 7-Jul-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL047545, 2011
Keywords: lava hazard
Abstract: Forecasting the lava flow invasion hazard in near‐real time is a primary challenge for volcano monitoring systems. The paroxysmal episode at Mount Etna on 12–13 January 2011 produced in ∼4 hours lava fountains and fast‐moving lava flows 4.3 km long. We produced timely predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the eruption was still ongoing. We employed infrared satellite data (MODIS, AVHRR, SEVIRI) to estimate in near‐realtime lava eruption rates (peak value of 60 m3 s−1). These time‐varying discharge rates were then used to drive MAGFLOW simulations to chart the spread of lava as a function of time. Based on a classification on durations and lava volumes of ∼130 paroxysms at Etna in the past 13 years, and on lava flow path simulations of expected eruptions, we constructed a lava flow invasion hazard map for summit eruptions, providing a rapid response to the impending hazard. This allowed key at‐risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately identified.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press
04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
04.04.99. General or miscellaneous
04.08.99. General or miscellaneous
04.08.03. Magmas
04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
04.08.08. Volcanic risk
05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks
05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
05.08.99. General or miscellaneous

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