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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7258
Authors: | Vicari, A.* Ganci, G.* Behncke, B.* Cappello, A.* Neri, M.* Del Negro, C.* |
Title: | Near‐real‐time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12–13 January 2011 Etna eruption | Other Titles: | FORECASTING OF LAVA FLOW HAZARDS AT ETNA | Journal: | Geophysical Researh Letters | Series/Report no.: | /38 (2011) | Publisher: | American Geophysical Union. | Issue Date: | 7-Jul-2011 | DOI: | 10.1029/2011GL047545, 2011 | URL: | http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2011GL047545.shtml | Keywords: | lava hazard Etna |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous |
Abstract: | Forecasting the lava flow invasion hazard in near‐real time is a primary challenge for volcano monitoring systems. The paroxysmal episode at Mount Etna on 12–13 January 2011 produced in ∼4 hours lava fountains and fast‐moving lava flows 4.3 km long. We produced timely predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows while the eruption was still ongoing. We employed infrared satellite data (MODIS, AVHRR, SEVIRI) to estimate in near‐realtime lava eruption rates (peak value of 60 m3 s−1). These time‐varying discharge rates were then used to drive MAGFLOW simulations to chart the spread of lava as a function of time. Based on a classification on durations and lava volumes of ∼130 paroxysms at Etna in the past 13 years, and on lava flow path simulations of expected eruptions, we constructed a lava flow invasion hazard map for summit eruptions, providing a rapid response to the impending hazard. This allowed key at‐risk areas to be rapidly and appropriately identified. |
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