Understanding Slow Deformation Before Dynamic Failure

Abstract

Slow deformation and fracturing have been shown to be leading mechanisms towards failure, marking earthquake ruptures, flank eruption onsets and landslide episodes. The common link among these processes is that populations of microcracks interact, grow and coalesce into major fractures. We present (a) two examples of multidisciplinary field monitoring of characteristic “large scale” signs of impending deformation from different tectonic setting, i.e. the Ruinon landslide (Italy) and Stromboli volcano (Italy) (b) the kinematic features of slow stress perturbations induced by fluid overpressures and relative modelling; (c) experimental rock deformation laboratory experiments and theoretical modelling investigating slow deformation mechanisms, such stress corrosion crack growth. We propose an interdisciplinary unitary and integrated approach aimed to: (1) transfer of knowledge between specific fields, which up to now aimed at solve a particular problem; (2) quantify critical damage thresholds triggering instability onset; (3) set up early warning models for forecasting the time of rupture with application to volcanology, seismology and landslide risk prevention.