Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6601
AuthorsCappello, A.* 
Vicari, A.* 
Del Negro, C.* 
TitleAssessment and modeling of lava flow hazard on Etna volcano
Issue Date2010
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/6601
Keywordsprobability map, lava inundation, lava flow hazard
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
AbstractA methodology for constructing a probability map of lava inundation by considering the past eruptive behavior of the Mt Etna volcano is described. The basic a priori assumption is that new vents will not form far from existing ones and that such a distribution can be performed using a Gaussian kernel. The methodology is based on several steps: computation of susceptibility map that provides the spatial probability of vent opening; evaluation of the temporal probability for the occurrence of the hazard during the considered time interval; characterization of the expected eruptions; numerical simulations of lava flow paths, and elaboration of the hazard map. The application of MAGFLOW code, a physical-mathematical model, for simulating the lava flow paths represents the central part of this methodology for the hazard assessment at Etna. The simulation approach, to assess lava flow hazard, provides a more robust and locally accurate analysis than a simple probabilistic approach and accounts for the influence of the actual topography on the path of future lava flows.
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