Homogeneous determination of maximum magnitude

Abstract

This deliverable represents the result of the activities performed by a working group at INGV. The main object of the Task 3.5 is defined in the Description of Work. This task will produce a homogeneous assessment (possibly multiple models) of the distribution of the expected Maximum Magnitude for earthquakes expected in various tectonic provinces of Europe, to serve as input for the computation and validation of seismic hazard. This goal will be achieved by combining input from earthquake catalogues, regional strain rates, knowledge of active faults and seismogenic zones, as well as the definition of the seismic source zones. As stated above, the maximum magnitude (Mmax) has to be derived by the combination of several products of the Work Package 3. The deadline of the other deliverables is contemporary or subsequent to the scheduled release of the Mmax map; this means that at the moment it is not possible to provide a final map, but only to describe the preliminary work and the delineated approach for getting the final version of the deliverable. In fact the determination of Mmax has to be based on an earthquake catalog and on a seismic source zones (SSZs) model. At the 18-months deadline (the deadline for Deliverable 3.3) the catalog is not yet released in a proper way for the aim of this task and the seismic source zones model is available in a preliminary release. According to the temporal alignment of the deliverables, the SHARE Management Committee decided in the 4th teleconference meeting that an outline of the methods to be used in the PSHA including a review of state-of-the-art Mmax determination practices shall be presented including preliminary examples. This first version is presented here. With both, the final earthquake catalog and source zones models available (D3.1, D3.2 and D3.4), a final version will be released.