Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6411
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Schorlemmer, D.; University of Southern California | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Christophersen, A.; GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Rovida, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Mele, F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Stucchi, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Milano-Pavia, Milano, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-12-16T14:35:31Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2010-12-16T14:35:31Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6411 | en |
dc.description.abstract | We describe the setting up of the first earthquake forecasting experiment for Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). CSEP conducts rigorous and truly prospective forecast experiments for different tectonic environments in several forecast testing centers around the globe; forecasts are issued for a future period and also tested only against future observations to avoid any possible bias. As such, experiments need to be completely defined. This includes exact definitions of the testing area, of learning data for the forecast models, and of observation data against which forecasts will be tested to evaluate their performance. Here we present the rules, as taken from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment and extended or changed for the Italian experiment. We also present characterizations of learning and observational catalogs that describe the completeness of these catalogs and illuminate inhomogeneities of magnitudes between these catalogs. A particular focus lies on the stability of earthquake recordings of the observational network. These catalog investigations provide guidance for CSEP modelers for developing earthquakes forecasts for submission to the forecast experiment in Italy. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.publisher.name | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Annals of Geophysics | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 3/53 (2010) | en |
dc.subject | Statistical analysis | en |
dc.subject | Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.subject | Seismic risk | en |
dc.subject | Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability | en |
dc.title | Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 1-9 | en |
dc.identifier.URL | http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4844 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.4401/ag-4844 | en |
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A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings, Tectonophysics, 395, 251-268. CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna; http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/. Dziewonski, A.M., T.-A. Chou and J.H. Woodhouse (1981). Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 2825-2852. Ekström, G., A.M. Dziewonski, N.N. Maternovskaya and M. Nettles (2005). Global seismicity of 2003: centroidmomenttensor solutions for 1087 earthquakes, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 148, 327-351. Field, E.H. (2007). Overview of the working group for the development of regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM), Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 7-16. Gasperini, P., F. Bernardini, G. Valensise and E. Boschi (1999). Defining seismogenic sources from historical earthquakes felt reports, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89, 94-110. Godey, S., R. Bossu, J. Guilbert and G. Mazet-Roux (2006). The Euro-Mediterranean bulletin: A comprehensive seismological bulletin at regional scale, Seismol. Res. Lett., 77, 460-474. Gulia, L. (2010). Detection of quarry and mine-blast contamination in European regional catalogues, Nat. Hazards, 53, 229-249. Habermann, R.E. (1987). Man-made changes of seismicity rates, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 77, 141-159. ISIDe Working Group (2007). Italian Seismic Instrumental and parametric Data-basE, INGV-CNT; http://iside.rm. ingv.it/. Mason, I.B. (2003). Binary Events, in: Forecast Verification. A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, edited by I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson, Wiley, Hoboken, 37-76. Mele, F., L. Arcoraci, P. Battelli, M. Berardi, C. Castellano, G. Lozzi, A. Marchetti, A. Nardi, M. Pirro and A. Rossi (2010). Bollettino Sismico Italiano 2008, Quaderni di Geofisica, 85, INGV, Roma, 45 pp., ISSN 1590-2595. Molchan, G.M. (1990). Strategies in strong earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61, 84-98. Molchan, G.M. and Y.Y. Kagan (1992). Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838. MPS Working Group (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma, April 2004 (MPS04), 65 pp. + 5 appendices; http://zonesismiche. mi.ingv.it. Pondrelli, S., S. Salimbeni, G. Ekström, A. Morelli, P. Gasperini and G. Vannucci (2006). The Italian CMT dataset from 1977 to the present, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 159, 286-303. Rovida, A. and the CPTI Working Group (2008). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, 1901-2006, versione 2008 (CPTI08), INGV, Milano-Pavia; http://www.cseptesting. org/regions/italy. Schorlemmer, D. and M. Gerstenberger (2007). RELM testing center, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 30-36. Schorlemmer, D. and J. Woessner (2008). Probability of detecting an earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 98, 2103-2117. Schorlemmer, D., M. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D.D. Jackson and D.A. Rhoades (2007). Earthquake likelihood model testing, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78, 17-29. Schorlemmer, D., F. Mele and W. Marzocchi (2010). A completeness analysis of the national seismic network of Italy, J. Geophys. Res., 115, B04308; doi: 10.1029/2008JB006097. Sipkin, S.A., W.J. Person and B.W. Presgrave (2000). Earthquake bulletins and catalogs at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, http://earthquake.usgs. gov/regional/neic/neic_bulletins.php. Stucchi, M., P. Albini, C. Mirto and A. Rebez (2004). Assessing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data, Annals of Geophysics, 47 (2-3), 659-673. Wessel, P. and W.H.F. Smith (1991). Free software helps map and display data, Eos Trans. AGU, 72, 445-446. Woessner, J. and S. Wiemer (2005). Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 684-698. Zechar, J.D. and T. Jordan (2008). Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions, Geophys. J. Int., 172, 715-724. Zechar, J.D., M.C. Gerstenberger and D.A. Rhoades (2010). Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 1184-1195. | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 5.2. TTC - Banche dati di sismologia strumentale | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Schorlemmer, D. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Christophersen, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Rovida, A. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Mele, F. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Stucchi, M. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.department | University of Southern California | en |
dc.contributor.department | GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Milano, Milano, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Milano, Milano, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | University of Southern California, Department of Earth Science, Los Angeles | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Milano, Milano, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0003-1467-1414 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-6147-9981 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-3680-7805 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-5870-1542 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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4844-6145-1-PB.pdf | 9.45 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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