Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6393
AuthorsvanStiphout, T.* 
Wiemer, S.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
TitleWhen are mitigation actions warranted: the case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake
Issue Date2010
Series/Report no./37 (2010)
DOI10.1029/2009GL042352
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/6393
Keywordsearthquake forecast
seismic risk
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk 
AbstractThe disastrous earthquake in L’Aquila Italy (Mw 6.3, 6 April 2009) again highlights the issue of potentially reducing seismic risk by releasing warnings or initiating mitigation actions. Earthquakes cluster strongly in space and time, leading to periods of increased seismic hazard. During such seismic crises, seismologists typically convey their knowledge of earthquake clustering based on past experience, basic statistics and “gut feeling.” However, this information is often not quantitative nor reproducible and difficult for decision‐makers to digest. We define a novel interdisciplinary approach that combines probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment with cost‐benefit analysis to allow objective risk‐based decision‐making. Our analysis demonstrates that evacuation as mitigation action is rarely cost‐effective. Future mitigation strategies should target the weakest buildings and those on the poorest soil.
DescriptionAn edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union.
Appears in Collections:Papers Published / Papers in press

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