Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6392
AuthorsWerner, M.* 
Zechar, J. D.* 
Marzocchi, W.* 
Wiemer, S.* 
TitleRetrospective tests of the long-term earthquake forecasts submitted to CSEP-Italy Predictability experiment.
Issue Date2010
Series/Report no.3/53 (2010)
DOI10.4401/ag-4840
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/6392
Keywordsearthquake forecast
CSEP experiment
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability 
AbstractOn August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic earthquake forecasts over temporal scales that range from days to years. In the first round of forecast submissions, members of the CSEP- Italy Working Group presented 18 five-year and ten-year earthquake forecasts to the European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We have considered here the twelve time-independent earthquake forecasts among this set, and evaluated them with respect to past seismicity data from two Italian earthquake catalogs. We present the results of the tests that measure the consistencies of the forecasts according to past observations. As well as being an evaluation of the time-independent forecasts submitted, this exercise provides insight into a number of important issues in predictability experiments with regard to the specification of the forecasts, the performance of the tests, and the trade-off between robustness of results and experiment duration. We conclude with suggestions for the design of future earthquake predictability experiments.
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