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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6392

Authors: Werner, M.*
Zechar, J. D.*
Marzocchi, W.*
Wiemer, S.*
Title: Retrospective tests of the long-term earthquake forecasts submitted to CSEP-Italy Predictability experiment.
Title of journal: Annals of Geophysics
Series/Report no.: 3/53 (2010)
Publisher: INGV
Issue Date: 2010
DOI: 10.4401/ag-4840
Keywords: earthquake forecast
CSEP experiment
Abstract: On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic earthquake forecasts over temporal scales that range from days to years. In the first round of forecast submissions, members of the CSEP- Italy Working Group presented 18 five-year and ten-year earthquake forecasts to the European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We have considered here the twelve time-independent earthquake forecasts among this set, and evaluated them with respect to past seismicity data from two Italian earthquake catalogs. We present the results of the tests that measure the consistencies of the forecasts according to past observations. As well as being an evaluation of the time-independent forecasts submitted, this exercise provides insight into a number of important issues in predictability experiments with regard to the specification of the forecasts, the performance of the tests, and the trade-off between robustness of results and experiment duration. We conclude with suggestions for the design of future earthquake predictability experiments.
Appears in Collections:04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
Papers Published / Papers in press

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