Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6353
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Faenza, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-12-15T10:07:26Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2010-12-15T10:07:26Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2010 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6353 | en |
dc.description.abstract | This paper presents the strategies adopted to modify the Proportional Hazard Model (Faenza et al., 2003; Cinti et al., 2004) to fit the requirement for the forecast test within CSEP experiment. The model has been originally proposed to study the spatiotemporal distribution of the M 5.5+ seismicity in Italy, using two spatial models, a regular grid and a seismotectonic zonation. A prospective 10-years forecast test is already ongoing since 2005 and the results are available at the webpage (http://www.bo.ingv.it/ earthquake/ ITALY/forecasting/M5.5+/). In that test, we report the probability maps of M 5.5+ earthquake for the next 10 years for two spatial distributions. Since the original model is time-dependent, it is updated every year and immediately after the occurrence of a target event, e.g., Mw 5.5. Despite that prospective test is continuing and that the model updates probabilities different from CSEP experiments, we argue that a full evaluation of the model could be achieved only through the CSEP testing experiment, where the performances of different models are compared using the same rules and tests. The major modification we have introduced into our model is the simulation of the expected numbers of events in the exposure time ∆τ. This is performed considering the probability that an event occurs in ∆τ and evaluating the change this will cause into the expected numbers of events. This procedure is implemented for the first and the second generation of aftershocks. | en |
dc.language.iso | English | en |
dc.relation.ispartof | Annals of Geophysics | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 3/53(2010) | en |
dc.subject | Earthquake forecasting | en |
dc.subject | Non-parametric statistical model | en |
dc.subject | Italy | en |
dc.title | The Proportional Hazard Model applied to the CSEP testing area in Italy | en |
dc.type | article | en |
dc.description.status | Published | en |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en |
dc.description.pagenumber | 77-84 | en |
dc.identifier.URL | http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4759 | en |
dc.subject.INGV | 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability | en |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.4401/ag-4759 | en |
dc.relation.references | Castello B., M. Olivieri, and G. Selvaggi (2007). Local and duration magnitude determination for the Italian earthquake catalogue (1981-2002). Bul l. Seism. Soc. Am., 97, 128 – 139. Chiarabba C., L. Jovane, and R. Di Stefano (2005). A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings, Tectonophys, 395, 251 – 268. Cinti, F.R., L. Faenza, W. Marzocchi, and P. Montone (2004). Probability map of the next M5.5 earthquakes in Italy, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 5, Q11003, doi:10.1029/2004GC000724. Cox, D.R. (1972). Regression models and life tables (with discussion), J. R. Stat. Soc. B., 34, 187 – 220. CPTI Working Group (1999). Catalogo parametrico dei terremoti Italiani, GNDT-ING-SGA-SSN, 88 pp., Ist. Naz. di Geofis. e Vulcanol., Bologna, July. (Available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI). CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo parametrico dei terremoti Italiani, version 2004 (CPTI04), Ist. Naz. di Geofis. e Vulcanol., Bologna. (Available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI). Kalbeisch, J.D., and R.L. Prentice, R.L. (1980). The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, John Wiley, NewYork, pp. 336 Faenza, L. (2005). Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of large earthquakes, Ph. D. Thesis, Università degli Studi di Bologna, Alma Mater Studiorum, Bologna, Italy. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/ Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, and E. Boschi (2003). A non-parametric hazard model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes: An application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int., 155(2), 521 – 531. Faenza,L., W. Marzocchi, A.M. Lombardi, and R. Console (2004). Some insights into the time clustering of large earthquakes in Italy. Ann. Geophys., 47(5),1635 – 1640. Faenza L., and S. Pierdominici (2007). Statistical occurrence analysis and spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes in the Apennines (Italy), Tectonophys, 439, 13–31. Faenza L., S. Hainzl, and F. Scherbaum (2009). Statistical analysis of the Central-Europe seismicity, Tectonophys, 470, 195 – 204. Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, P. Serretti, and E. Boschi (2008). On the spatio-temporal distribution of M70.+ worldwide seismicity. Tectonophys, 449, 97 – 104. Marzocchi, W., and L. Sandri (2003). A review and new insight on the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty, Ann. Geophys. , 46, 1271 – 1282. Pondrelli S., S. Salimbeni, A. Morelli, G. Ekstrom, M. Olivieri, and E. Boschi (2010). Seismic moment tensors of the April 2009, L’Aquila (Central Italy), earthquake sequence, Geophys. J. Int. 180, 238 – 242. Sandri, L., and W. Marzocchi (2007). A technical note on the bias in the estimation of the b-value and its uncertainty through the least squares technique, Ann. Geophys., 50, 329 – 339. Wessel, P., and W. H. F. Smith (1998), New, improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools released, Eos Trans. AGU, 79(47), 579. | en |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale | en |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Faenza, L. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Marzocchi, W. | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia | en |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione ONT, Roma, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-6135-1141 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-9114-1516 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 04. Solid Earth | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
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Faenza_Marzocchi_2010.pdf | Main Article | 5.91 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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