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Non-linear analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
1.6. Osservazioni di geomagnetismo
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/11 (2004)
Pages (printed)
119-125
Issued date
2004
Keywords
Abstract
An intensive nonlinear analysis of geomagnetic
time series from the magnetic network on Etna volcano was
carried out to investigate the dynamical behavior of magnetic
anomalies in volcanic areas. The short-term predictability of
the geomagnetic time series was evaluated to establish a possible
low-dimensional deterministic dynamics. We estimated
the predictive ability of both a nonlinear forecasting technique
and a global autoregressive model by comparing the
prediction errors. Our findings highlight that volcanomagnetic
signals are the result of complex processes that cannot
easily be predicted. There is slight evidence based on
nonlinear predictions, that the geomagnetic time series are to
be governed by many variables, whose time evolution could
be better regarded as arising from complex high dimensional
processes.
time series from the magnetic network on Etna volcano was
carried out to investigate the dynamical behavior of magnetic
anomalies in volcanic areas. The short-term predictability of
the geomagnetic time series was evaluated to establish a possible
low-dimensional deterministic dynamics. We estimated
the predictive ability of both a nonlinear forecasting technique
and a global autoregressive model by comparing the
prediction errors. Our findings highlight that volcanomagnetic
signals are the result of complex processes that cannot
easily be predicted. There is slight evidence based on
nonlinear predictions, that the geomagnetic time series are to
be governed by many variables, whose time evolution could
be better regarded as arising from complex high dimensional
processes.
References
Abarbanel, H. D. I.: Analysis of observed chaotic data, Springer
Verlag, 1995.
Abarbanel, H., Brown, R., Sidorowich, J., Tsimring, L.: The analysis
of observed Chaotic data in physical systems, Reviews of
Modern Physics, 65, 1331–1392, 1993.
Barraclough, D. R. and De Santis, A.: Some possible evidence for
a chaotic geomagnetic field from observational data, Phys. Earth
Planet. Inter., 99, 207–220, 1997.
Casdagli, M.: Chaos and deterministic versus stochastic nonlinear
modeling, J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 54, 303–328, 1991.
Cuomo, V., Lapenna, P., Macchiato, M., Serio, C., and Telasca, L.:
Stochastic behoviour and scaling laws in geoelectrical signals
measured in a seismic area of southern Italy, Geophys. J. Int.,
Vol 139, 889–894, 1999.
Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Vicari, A.: Nonlinear identification
of complex geomagnetic models: an innovative approach,
Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 6:1, 524–
533, 2003.
Davis, P. M., Stacey, F. D., Zablocki, C. J., and Olson, J. V.: Improved
signal discrimination in tectonomagnetism: discovery of
a volcanomagnetic effect at Kilauea, Hawaii, Phys. Earth Planet.
Inter., 19, 331–336, 1979.
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., Searls, C. A., and McPherron, R. L.:
Detection of tectonomagnetic events using multichannel predictive
filtering, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 1731–1737, 1981.
Davis, P. M. and Johnston, M. J.: Localized geomagnetic field
changes near active faults in California 1974–1980, J. Geophys.
Res., 88, 9452–9460, 1983.
Del Negro, C. and Currenti, G.: Volcanomagnetic signal associated
with the 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
30, 7, 2003
Del Negro, C., Ferrucci, F., and Napoli, R.: The Permanent Network
for Magnetic Surveillance of Mt. Etna: Changes in the Geomagnetic
Total Intensity Observed in 1995, Acta Vulcanologica, 9,
1–7, 1997.
Del Negro, C. and Ferrucci, F.: Magnetic history of a dyke on Mt.
Etna, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 451–458, 1998.
Del Negro, C., Napoli, R., and Sicali, A.: Automated system for
magnetic monitoring of active volcanoes, Bull. Volcanol., 64,
94–99, 2002.
Farmer, J. D. and Sidorowich, J. J.: Predicting chaotic time series,
Phys. Rev. Lett., 59, 845, 1987.
George, B., Renuka, G., Satheesh Kumar, K., Anil Kumar, C. P., and
Venugopal, C.: Nonlinear time series analysis of the fluctuations
of the geomagnetic horizontal field, Ann. Geophysicae, 20, 175–
183, 2001.
Hongre, L., Sailhac, P., Alexandrescu, M., andDubois, J.: Nonlinear
and multifractal approaches of geomagnetic field, Phys. Earth
Planet. Inter., 110, 157–190, 1999.Kantz, H. and Schreiber, Th.: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis,
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1997.
Kostelich, E. J.: The analysis of chaotic time-series data, Systems
and Control Letters, 31 313–319, 1997.
Mueller, R. J. and Johnston, M. J. S.: Review of magnetic field
monitoring near active faults and volcanic calderas in California:
1974–1995, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 105, 131–144, 1998.
Okeke, F. N. and Hamano, Y.: Daily variations of geomagnetic H D
and Z-field at equatorial latitudes, Earth Planets Space, 52, 237-
243, 2000.
Parkinson, W. D.: Introduction to geomagnetism, Scottish Academic
Press, 1983.
Price, C. P., Prickard, D., and Bischoff, J. E.: Nonlinear input/
outputof the auroral electrojet index, J. Geophys. Res., 99,
13 227–13 238, 1994.Sugihara, G. and May, R.M.: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing
chaos from measurement error in time series, Nature,
344, 734–741, 1990.
Takens, F.: Detecting strange attractors in turbulence, Springer Lec.
Notes in Math., Springer-Verlag, New York, 898, 366–381, 1981.
Tsonis, A. A. and Elsner, J. B.: Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing
chaos from random fractal sequences, Nature, 358,
217–220, 1992.
Tsonis, A. A., Triantafyllou, G. N., and Elsner, J. B.: Searching
for determinism in observed data: a review of the issue involved,
Nonlin. Proc. Geophys, 1, 12–25, 1994.
Verlag, 1995.
Abarbanel, H., Brown, R., Sidorowich, J., Tsimring, L.: The analysis
of observed Chaotic data in physical systems, Reviews of
Modern Physics, 65, 1331–1392, 1993.
Barraclough, D. R. and De Santis, A.: Some possible evidence for
a chaotic geomagnetic field from observational data, Phys. Earth
Planet. Inter., 99, 207–220, 1997.
Casdagli, M.: Chaos and deterministic versus stochastic nonlinear
modeling, J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 54, 303–328, 1991.
Cuomo, V., Lapenna, P., Macchiato, M., Serio, C., and Telasca, L.:
Stochastic behoviour and scaling laws in geoelectrical signals
measured in a seismic area of southern Italy, Geophys. J. Int.,
Vol 139, 889–894, 1999.
Currenti, G., Del Negro, C., Fortuna, L., Vicari, A.: Nonlinear identification
of complex geomagnetic models: an innovative approach,
Nonlinear Phenomena in Complex Systems, 6:1, 524–
533, 2003.
Davis, P. M., Stacey, F. D., Zablocki, C. J., and Olson, J. V.: Improved
signal discrimination in tectonomagnetism: discovery of
a volcanomagnetic effect at Kilauea, Hawaii, Phys. Earth Planet.
Inter., 19, 331–336, 1979.
Davis, P. M., Jackson, D. D., Searls, C. A., and McPherron, R. L.:
Detection of tectonomagnetic events using multichannel predictive
filtering, J. Geophys. Res., 86, 1731–1737, 1981.
Davis, P. M. and Johnston, M. J.: Localized geomagnetic field
changes near active faults in California 1974–1980, J. Geophys.
Res., 88, 9452–9460, 1983.
Del Negro, C. and Currenti, G.: Volcanomagnetic signal associated
with the 2001 flank eruption of Mt. Etna, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
30, 7, 2003
Del Negro, C., Ferrucci, F., and Napoli, R.: The Permanent Network
for Magnetic Surveillance of Mt. Etna: Changes in the Geomagnetic
Total Intensity Observed in 1995, Acta Vulcanologica, 9,
1–7, 1997.
Del Negro, C. and Ferrucci, F.: Magnetic history of a dyke on Mt.
Etna, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 451–458, 1998.
Del Negro, C., Napoli, R., and Sicali, A.: Automated system for
magnetic monitoring of active volcanoes, Bull. Volcanol., 64,
94–99, 2002.
Farmer, J. D. and Sidorowich, J. J.: Predicting chaotic time series,
Phys. Rev. Lett., 59, 845, 1987.
George, B., Renuka, G., Satheesh Kumar, K., Anil Kumar, C. P., and
Venugopal, C.: Nonlinear time series analysis of the fluctuations
of the geomagnetic horizontal field, Ann. Geophysicae, 20, 175–
183, 2001.
Hongre, L., Sailhac, P., Alexandrescu, M., andDubois, J.: Nonlinear
and multifractal approaches of geomagnetic field, Phys. Earth
Planet. Inter., 110, 157–190, 1999.Kantz, H. and Schreiber, Th.: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis,
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1997.
Kostelich, E. J.: The analysis of chaotic time-series data, Systems
and Control Letters, 31 313–319, 1997.
Mueller, R. J. and Johnston, M. J. S.: Review of magnetic field
monitoring near active faults and volcanic calderas in California:
1974–1995, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 105, 131–144, 1998.
Okeke, F. N. and Hamano, Y.: Daily variations of geomagnetic H D
and Z-field at equatorial latitudes, Earth Planets Space, 52, 237-
243, 2000.
Parkinson, W. D.: Introduction to geomagnetism, Scottish Academic
Press, 1983.
Price, C. P., Prickard, D., and Bischoff, J. E.: Nonlinear input/
outputof the auroral electrojet index, J. Geophys. Res., 99,
13 227–13 238, 1994.Sugihara, G. and May, R.M.: Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing
chaos from measurement error in time series, Nature,
344, 734–741, 1990.
Takens, F.: Detecting strange attractors in turbulence, Springer Lec.
Notes in Math., Springer-Verlag, New York, 898, 366–381, 1981.
Tsonis, A. A. and Elsner, J. B.: Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing
chaos from random fractal sequences, Nature, 358,
217–220, 1992.
Tsonis, A. A., Triantafyllou, G. N., and Elsner, J. B.: Searching
for determinism in observed data: a review of the issue involved,
Nonlin. Proc. Geophys, 1, 12–25, 1994.
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