Accommodated high-resolution historical temperatures in the Mediterranean area

Abstract

Numerous documentary collections are available in the Mediterranean countries, which hold potential to build and rearrange climatic reconstructions. These data are vital for obtaining reliable temperature estimates in pre-instrumental age but, in general, they have not been fully explored or analyzed. Past temperature reconstructions showed a wide range of variability, raising questions about the reliability of currently available reconstruction techniques and the uniqueness of late 20th century warming. Taking this challenge up, the present paper has attempted to exploit an historical documentation for the temperature modelling in pre-instrumental time. Combining information derived from proxy-information and large-scale simulation data, a regression-based downscaling mixed model was developed to accommodate the regional temperature field to a location of the Southern Italy (Catanzaro station). The statistical methodology used and the results of winter temperature modelling are discussed. A final exhortation on the robustness of this approach recalls on the accuracy of the model itself, but also on the overall ability to extract the right information to replicate coherently the temperature series.