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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/6069
Authors: | Selva, J.* Costa, A.* Marzocchi, W.* Sandri, L.* |
Title: | BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) | Journal: | Bull Volcanol | Series/Report no.: | 6/72 (2010) | Publisher: | Springer Berlin / Heidelberg | Issue Date: | 2010 | DOI: | 10.1007/s00445-010-0358-7 | Keywords: | Volcanic hazard Ash fall · Bayesian event tree Campi Flegrei |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis |
Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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