Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy

Abstract

Forecasting the time, nature, and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions are fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high‐resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land use and civil defense planning in the long term, to quantify, in real time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.