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Authors: Slejko, D.*
Caporali, A.*
Stirling, M.*
Barba, S.*
Title: Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods
Issue Date: Jan-2010
Citation: Slejko, D., A. Caporali, M. Stirling, and S. Barba. Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods. J. Seismol., 14, 27-51, 2010.
Series/Report no.: 1/14 (2010)
DOI: 10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x
Keywords: seismic hazard
numerical models
strain rate
Abstract: We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M W ≥ 6.5.
Appears in Collections:04.03.01. Crustal deformations
04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability

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