MODELING OF HYDROTHERMAL FLUID CIRCULATION AS A TOOL FOR VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Abstract

Monitoring of geophysical and geochemical observ¬ables at the surface plays a main role in the under¬standing of—and the hazard evaluation of— active volcanoes. Measurable changes in these parameters should occur when a volcano approches eruptive con¬ditions. Hydrothermal activity is commonly studied as an efficient carrier of signals from the magmatic system. As the magmatic system evolves, the amount, temperature, and composition of magmatic fluids that feed the hydrothermal system change, in turn affecting the parameters that are monitored at the surface. Modeling of hydrothermal circulation, as shown in the past, may cause measurable gravity changes and ground deformation. In this work, we extend our previous studies and increase the number of observable parameters to include gas temperature, the rate of diffuse degassing, the extent of the degassing area, and electrical conductivity. The possibility of nonmagmatic disturbance needs to be carefully addressed to ensure a proper estimate of volcanic hazard.