Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/5856
DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.authorall | Vanderbulcke, L.; GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Beckers, J.-M.; GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Lenartz, F.; GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Barth, A.; GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Poulain, P.-M.; stituto Nazionale di Oceanografia Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Aidonindis, M.; ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Meyrat, J.; ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Ardhuin, F.; ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Fratianni, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Tonani, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Torrisi, L.; Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Pasquini, S.; Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Chiggiato, J.; ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro Meteorologico, Bologna | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Tudor, M.; DHMZ Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Book, J.; US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Martin, P.; US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Allard, R.; US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Peggion, G.; US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en |
dc.contributor.authorall | Rixen, M.; NATO/SACLANT Undersea Research Centre, La Spezia, Italy | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-01-25T10:46:06Z | en |
dc.date.available | 2010-01-25T10:46:06Z | en |
dc.date.issued | 2009-11 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/5856 | en |
dc.description.abstract | The prediction of the drift of floating objects is an important task, with applications such as marine transport, pollutant dispersion, and search-and-rescue activities. But forecasting surface drift is also very challenging, because it depends in a complex way on various interacting factors such as the wind, the ocean surface current, and the wave field. Furthermore, although each of the cited factors can be fore- casted by deterministic models, the latter all suffer from limitations, resulting in imperfect predictions. In the present study, we try and predict the drift of buoys launched during the DART06 (Dynamics of the Adriatic sea in Real-Time 2006) and MREA07 (Maritime Rapid Environmental Assessment 2007) sea trials, using the so-called hyper-ensemble technique: different models are combined in order to minimize departure from independent observations during a training period; the ob- tained combination is then used in forecasting mode. We review and try out different hyper-ensemble techniques, going from simple ensemble mean to techniques based on data assimilation, which dynamically update the model’s weights in the combi- nation when new observations become available. We show that the latter methods alleviate the need of fixing the training length a priori, as older information is au- tomatically discarded, and hence they lead to better results. Moreover, they allow to determine a characteristic time during which the model weights are more or less stable, which allows to predict how long the obtained combination will be valid in forecasting mode. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | English | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartof | Progress in Oceanography | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | /82 (2009) | en_US |
dc.subject | super-ensemble, surface drift forecast | en_US |
dc.title | Sueper-Ensemble techniques: application to surface drift prediction during the DART06 and MREA07 campaigns | en_US |
dc.type | article | en_US |
dc.description.status | Published | en_US |
dc.type.QualityControl | Peer-reviewed | en_US |
dc.description.pagenumber | 149–167 | en_US |
dc.subject.INGV | 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.pocean.2009.06.002 | en_US |
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Historical drifter data and statis- tical prediction of particle motion: A case study in the central adriatic sea. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 24, 235–254. Williford, C. E., Krishnamurti, T., Torres, R., Cocke, S., 2003. Real-time multi-model superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999. Monthly Weather Review 131, 1878–1894. Yun, W., Stefanova, L., Krishnamurti, T., 2003. Improvement of the multi- model superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts. Journal of Climate 16, 3834–3840. Yun, W., Stefanova, L., Mitra, A., Vijaya Kumar, T., Dewar, W., Krishna- murti, T., 2005. A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal cli- mate prediction using demeter forecasts. Tellus 57, 280–289. | en_US |
dc.description.obiettivoSpecifico | 4A. Oceanografia e clima | en_US |
dc.description.journalType | JCR Journal | en_US |
dc.description.fulltext | open | en |
dc.contributor.author | Vanderbulcke, L. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Beckers, J.-M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Lenartz, F. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Barth, A. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Poulain, P.-M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Aidonindis, M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Meyrat, J. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Ardhuin, F. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Fratianni, C. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tonani, M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Torrisi, L. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Pasquini, S. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Chiggiato, J. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Tudor, M. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Book, J. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Martin, P. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Allard, R. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Peggion, G. | - |
dc.contributor.author | Rixen, M. | - |
dc.contributor.department | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | stituto Nazionale di Oceanografia Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro Meteorologico, Bologna | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | DHMZ Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | NATO/SACLANT Undersea Research Centre, La Spezia, Italy | en_US |
item.openairetype | article | - |
item.cerifentitytype | Publications | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.openairecristype | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | - |
crisitem.author.dept | GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research, ULG (Belgium) | - |
crisitem.author.dept | GeoHydrodynamics and Environmental Research, University of Liege, Belgium | - |
crisitem.author.dept | GeoHydrodynamics and Environment Research, ULG (Belgium) | - |
crisitem.author.dept | stituto Nazionale di Oceanografia Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy | - |
crisitem.author.dept | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | - |
crisitem.author.dept | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | - |
crisitem.author.dept | ServiceIdrographique et Oceanographique de la marine, 13 rue du Chatelier, 29200 Brest, France | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Servizio Meteorologico (Aeronautica Militare), Italy | - |
crisitem.author.dept | DHMZ Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia | - |
crisitem.author.dept | NRL | - |
crisitem.author.dept | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | - |
crisitem.author.dept | US Naval Research Lab., 4555 Overlook Ave, SW, Washington, DC 20375 | - |
crisitem.author.dept | NATO Undersea Research Centre | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4983-4255 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-5452-3251 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-0998-6473 | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0001-7987-1236 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.classification.parent | 03. Hydrosphere | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
crisitem.department.parentorg | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia | - |
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