Pre-operational short-term forecasts for Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry

Abstract

Operational prediction of the marine environment is recognised as a fundamental research issue in Europe. We present a pre-operational implementation of a biogeochem- ical model for the pelagic waters of the Mediterranean Sea, developed within the framework of the MERSEA-IP Euro- pean project. The OPATM-BFM coupled model is the core of a fully automatic system that delivers weekly analyses and forecast maps for the Mediterranean Sea biogeochem- istry. The system has been working in its current configura- tion since April 2007 with successful execution of the fully automatic operational chain in 87% of the cases while in the remaining cases the runs were successfully accomplished af- ter operator intervention. A description of the system devel- oped and also a comparison of the model results with satel- lite data are presented, together with a measure of the model skill evaluated by means of seasonal target diagrams. Future studies will address the implementation of a data assimila- tion scheme for the biogeochemical compartment in order to increase the skill of the model’s performance.